this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2024
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[–] iAmTheTot@sh.itjust.works 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Is that race close? I remember being optimistic before and getting dashed, so I haven't paid attention to that one this time around.

[–] cm0002@lemmy.world 20 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Yes, Collin Allred has apparently been hitting out of the park, way better and closer than the last D candidate to get close to unseating Ted Cruz

[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 10 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (3 children)

Cruz won over Beto at 2.6%, 538 is projecting Cruz at +4% over Allred. What am I missing?

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 8 points 1 day ago (2 children)

The Iowa poll is the key to this whole thing.

The Setzer poll tosses out what past elections use as a base for their calculations. She goes off what's happening now and it's an extremely reliable poll.

#VOTE!!

[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 5 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

Aged like milk. What a shame.

[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I'm going to ask this dumb question in the interest of learning: I understand and agree Setzer is solid at polling Iowa, but what does it have to do with the Texas Senate?

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 5 points 1 day ago

Polls are going off old data, not taking in account the new voters, and the Republicans dropped 30 shitty right-wing polls that skewed the data.

[–] njm1314@lemmy.world 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)
[–] CaptDust@sh.itjust.works 2 points 23 hours ago (1 children)

Cruz with a 10% lead, lol. Texans like it, I guess.

[–] njm1314@lemmy.world 4 points 22 hours ago

Same as 2022. I've been saying for months that Allred was running the wrong kind of campaign. For all of his flaws Beto O'Rourke did better than any Democrat has in like the last 30 years. Instead of following that strategy of high energy and high engagement Allred ran a low energy passive campaign that spent all this energy targeting Republican and moderate voters. Insanity. In essence he ran the same tired Texas democratic party campaign as everyone else who gets their ass kicked in this state does.

[–] cm0002@lemmy.world 2 points 1 day ago

Can't really trust the polls, from what I've been reading they've been overcompensating for the "Trump R factor" not to mention all the shady Republicans polls that keep dumping trash data that are all "Oh yea it's gonna be a total Trump landslideee!!!! Trust me brooo!"

[–] expatriado@lemmy.world 0 points 1 day ago (1 children)

and unlike Beto, he didn't say Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47

[–] njm1314@lemmy.world 10 points 1 day ago

Beto didn't say that during the senate race he said that during the presidential race a few years later