this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2024
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All great information IMO, thanks!
Checked out the ruble, it's hovering just under 100 (97.2 rubble forca dollar), I wonder when it will hit it, and potentially starting to crash dive.
Maybe the rubles "value" is in limbo though, as nobody wants to neither buy nor sell it.
It's kind of already crashing:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=5Y
The Ruble came under stress immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine back in February 22nd 2022.
As you can see there a steep drop below 1 cent, then Russia takes a number of immediate actions to support the Ruble, and the value increased to 1.84 cent.
All these actions they took in early 2022 are still in force, yet the Ruble continues to decline, and in a little over 2 years, it has almost halved in value, despite Russian efforts to support it.
If you look at the past 3 months on the graph, you can see a very obvious decline, even when the Central Bank increased Interest rates significantly 3 times from 16% to 21%.
The Ruble is weak, and the hikes in interest rates that should stabilize it, are not effective and are undermined by the Russian economy simply being awful, and Putin becoming economically irresponsible.
By comparison most western Central/National banks have lowered interest rates, for instance the European Central Bank has lowered rates 3 times this year to now 3.4%:
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate
Russia is unable to control inflation and currency rates, in an environment where the economies surrounding them are stable. So this is exclusively a Russian problem the imposed on themselves.
Sorry for rambling. ๐
Nice write up! Looks like the whole Russian economy starts to detach itself from other economies too. No one wants to come to russias BRICS meeting, I wonder when russians will start trade in dollar or other...
Oh boy BRICS...
One of the principles of BRICS is non-interference, obviously Russia has no such ideal, when they invade a peaceful neighbor that actually tried to work with them. They've also interfered heavily in many other countries, using misinformation to undermine them.
Unfortunately BRICS is pretty massive by now, so to the degree they can agree on something, they could potentially be very powerful.