this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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I don't think that's an accurate comparison, it's more like a few hundred people guessing a different result of a practically infinite-sided die. For all we know, the origin of the universe can be anything, and it's maybe (who are we kidding, definitely) something even beyond our imaginations. For all we know, we're trapped in Charlie's Chocolate Factory. What are the odds that anyone who ever wrote a book about a diety/universal origins actually got it right? Hint: it's not 1/6 odds, or even 1/1,000,000,000, it's 1/∞. Technically not zero, but c'mon, it's practically zero.
The argument put forth is not that the chances of them being right is small, but that because they can't all be right, they must all be wrong. I gave a counter example that demonstrates, pretty clearly, that this logic doesn't make sense. I'm not comparing religious beliefs to a D6, but giving a demonstration as to why the logic is bad.
Gotcha, I see where you're coming from. I think that the phrase isn't meant to be taken as cold hard logic but a rule of thumb for the default position on a theory. To reiterate, we don't know that any religion is right, but because they contradict each other, we do know that some must be wrong. Since none provide proof, and especially because they all contradict each other, a reasonable person would assume that they're all all wrong until actually finding some evidence.
So yeah, the way it's worded it does sound like a logical expression, but really it's "If 20 people tell you the answer and they all give you different answers without showing their work, it's not safe to bet that any one of them are right"
Right but they are right that it's not zero.
It might be that everyone is wrong, but just maybe someone got it right...
Remember that next time the crazy man walking down the street screams at you that they made the world with their fart and a lighter... Cause it might just be the correct answer.