"The oligarchs" are just the ultra-rich owners of companies. Like US billionaires or the South Korean Chaebol owners. This war was launched and us maintained with their consent and support. They are the head of the capitalist ruling class in the RF. If they changed their minds Putin would just appear to have decided this himself.

So far, the Russian economy has actually improved during the war and profits are high.

A civil war in Russia

Why would this be a plausible thing to happen in the next few years?

China and India stop trading with Russia

And shoot themselves in the foot? Why? US-led sanctions and financial weapons deployed against Russia have already scared countries into working together to avoid being vulnerable to the US.

Russia runs out of tanks

Russia has increased its industrial capacity during this war. The opposite is more likely: the US and Western Europe have been sending old stocks but they are failing to replace them fast enough, particularly artillery.

Russia runs out of money

But Russia is actually doing better than before. They have been forced to invest in the real economy and consequently have, against the plans of their finance capitalist economists, made their economy much more robust.

These aren't realistic outcomes. And the problem with rose-tinted glasses here is that it means a lot of Ukrainians die for no reason.

[–] rammer@sopuli.xyz -1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

This war was launched and us maintained with their consent and support. They are the head of the capitalist ruling class in the RF.

They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin. They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That's why he is so paranoid.

So far, the Russian economy has actually improved during the war and profits are high.

Now I know you're trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia's recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.

Why would this be a plausible thing to happen in the next few years?

A civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid. Don't get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc. General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army. The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either. Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment? The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.

And shoot themselves in the foot? Why? US-led sanctions and financial weapons deployed against Russia have already scared countries into working together to avoid being vulnerable to the US.

Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions? Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?

Russia has increased its industrial capacity during this war.

It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine. And many of the cold storage sites are now empty. It is only a matter of time before Russia runs out of tanks. It is telling that they aren't delivering the already ordered tanks abroad and are instead importing older tanks.

But Russia is actually doing better than before. They have been forced to invest in the real economy and consequently have, against the plans of their finance capitalist economists, made their economy much more robust.

Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.

Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.

Inflation is really high. Any country that has a higher inflation right now is in the middle of a financial meltdown.

Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.

Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.

These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.

[–] TheOubliette@lemmy.ml 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin.

No, they're all on the same team and their collective is the most powerful thing. If the major owners of companies all want a policy change in a capitalist system, they get it. Putin is their political operative and has power with their consent.

They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That's why he is so paranoid.

When Russia loses? They are winning, their economy is booming, and the country is stable. You've just listed a series of implausible outcomes. Is there a probable one you haven't told me?

Now I know you're trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia's recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.

Happy to discuss them. How is the ruble doing? Total imports and exports? Employment? Shortages? Inflation?

civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid

The RF pays its soldiers.

Don't get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc.

This also happens in the US but their only civil war was over slavery. What evidence do you have that this is widespread and leading to organized treason?

General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army.

Have you ever heard a person that was in the US army talk about any of those things? Why would this mean one thing in the RF and another in the US?

The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either

Hidden? So you know the real number?

Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment?

This does not make it unsustainable. This was also the logic and methodology used by the US when it was officially in hot wars.

The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.

You have a read on the bulk sentiment of, "the people"? How?

Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions?

Because those are small Chinese banks that don't feel confident they've worked around sanctions. Small fry. I assume you just read a headline from around two weeks ago?

Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?

Because it is an easy way to bypass international finance restrictions. The necessity of things like this is why other countries are desperate to join alternatives to SWIFT.

It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine.

Oh? How many is it producing vs losing?

Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.

Should I start calling you a troll every time you disagree with me? Is this logical, to you?

Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.

It is spending its reserves, yes. But this means less for a country with a strong industrial base and sufficient bilateral trade.

Inflation is really high.

Tell me the number. How does it compare to other countries over the last 4 years?

Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.

The ruble is stronger now than before the invasion.

Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.

Then wages should be rapidly rising. Are wages rapidly rising?

These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.

To get a sense of how the real economy is doing you have to look at statistics you haven't even mentioned.

[–] rammer@sopuli.xyz 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

No, they’re all on the same team and their collective is the most powerful thing.

Sure, if you're not on the same team you get defenestrated. That is a powerful motivator. But it is a powerful motivator for a coup as well.

Hidden? So you know the real number? As you well know all we have are estimates. All realistic estimates put the number over 600000 killed and wounded. Of those 68011 have been confirmed killed by name. That means that there are more killed and wounded than in any Russian war after WW2.

You have a read on the bulk sentiment of, “the people”? How? There is a significant difference between what the Russian media is telling the people and what they see on Telegram and directly from their husbands and relatives. The Russian people are not stupid. They get to see the reality of the war by the sheer number of people not returning. They get to see the reality of the war by the pleas from soldiers for supplies and for justice.

Because it is an easy way to bypass international finance restrictions. LOL. Those middle-men are not cheap.

Oh? How many is it producing vs losing? Russia is producing at most two to three hundred tanks a year. And most of those are refurbished tanks. Based on the financials. And it is losing five to six hundred a year. Based on Ukrainian numbers.

Should I start calling you a troll every time you disagree with me? Is this logical, to you? I call you a troll when you ignore reality and keep repeating Russian talking points. I call you a troll when you demand I justify my position while providing no justification for yours.

Tell me the number. How does it compare to other countries over the last 4 years?

Russian inflation is right now at 9.1% and rising. Inflation hasn't been below 4% since the beginning the war. At worst it has been at 17,8%. Compared to other economies of similar size it is among the worst in the world. Western countries are nowhere near these figures. Russian interest rates are high at 18%. Most of the growth in the Russian economy has come from the war economy. This is not healthy in the long term and will cause problems when the war ends.

The ruble is stronger now than before the invasion. Before the invasion the ruble was around hovering around 1 USD to 70 RUB. Right now it around 1 USD to 90 RUB. And you have to take into account that RUB isn't being freely traded like it was before the invasion. There are also other significant currency control measures in place that prop up RUB. So no, the Russian ruble is not stronger than before the invasion.

Then wages should be rapidly rising. Are wages rapidly rising? They are rising rapidly in the sectors that are dependent on the war economy. Others simply cannot afford to raise them and have to go without staff.

To get a sense of how the real economy is doing you have to look at statistics you haven’t even mentioned. In this comment I've now gone through inflation and currency. What next? When are you going to start justifying any of your positions?

[–] TheOubliette@lemmy.ml 3 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Sure, if you're not on the same team you get defenestrated. That is a powerful motivator. But it is a powerful motivator for a coup as well.

I don't know what those sentences mean. But I can tell you that your Great Man Theory here is incorrect.

As you well know all we have are estimates.

How can you know the real number is being hidden if you don't know it? There is a lot of specific knowledge required to support your claim. I think we both know that is because you read it in a headline.

All realistic estimates put the number over 600000 killed and wounded.

Show me your most realistic estimate source.

Of those 68011 have been confirmed killed by name.

That is a very specific number. It is a number from BBC Russia, in fact, and it is misleading to say "confirmed" as it is actually based on trusting their guesswork and crowdsourcing. It is from 3 days ago.

Remember, your claim is that Russia is hiding the real toll. So you must know it yourself and be able to explain how it is being hidden.

There is a significant difference between what the Russian media is telling the people and what they see on Telegram and directly from their husbands and relatives. [...]

You did not answer my question.

LOL. Those middle-men are not cheap.

This does not address what I said.

Russia is producing at most two to three hundred tanks a year. And most of those are refurbished tanks. Based on the financials.

What financials yell you the number of tanks Russia is currently producing?

And it is losing five to six hundred a year. Based on Ukrainian numbers.

Why would you accept their numbers at face value? Not even their NATO sponsors trust their numbers.

I call you a troll when you ignore reality and keep repeating Russian talking points.

This is how you process my disagreement with you, yes. By namecalling and making things up. Please try to do better.

I call you a troll when you demand I justify my position while providing no justification for yours.

You are repeatedly offering up absurdities. Your original comment was as simplistic as, "Russia could just leave" and you then invented a series of increasing absurdities cribbed from headlines and articles that were both know you just Googled. When you compound absurd claims you will have to spend a lot of time backing them up. At least, if the other person is paying attention.

My comments have mostly been to poke holes in the absurdities and ask you to make your implied knowledge consistent with your claims. It has not gone well.

You seem to think it is unfair that you have had to answer questions about your silly claims. This makes me think you don't know how yo ask your own. Would you like me to teach you how to do so?

Russian inflation is right now at 9.1% and rising. Inflation hasn't been below 4% since the beginning the war. At worst it has been at 17,8%. Compared to other economies of similar size it is among the worst in the world. Western countries are nowhere near these figures.

The 9% number is quarterly, for the year it will be around 7. Germany's inflation rate in 2023 was around 6. It was around 4 in the UK for the same year, hitting 9% for a quarter the year prior. The US had rates of 7-9% in 2021-2022. Italy's was 8 in 2022 and 5ish in 2023.

You are objectively incorrect about this being incomparable to other relevant states.

Most of the growth in the Russian economy has come from the war economy. This is not healthy in the long term and will cause problems when the war ends.

Ah yes, this is why 1950s America was just one big recession.

Before the invasion the ruble was around hovering around 1 USD to 70 RUB. Right now it around 1 USD to 90 RUB.

Ah, looks like I am wrong and despite early jumps it has now settled into a slightly lower exchange rate. Still not weak, however.

They are rising rapidly in the sectors that are dependent on the war economy. Others simply cannot afford to raise them and have to go without staff.

Both wages and employment are up, actually. You are telling very specific stories about behavior in contradiction of the wider facts. Presumably you are an undercover gonzo economist in Russia?

I wonder how the "Russia could just leave" person could suddenly possess such specific knowledge!

In this comment I've now gone through inflation and currency. What next?

You ignored sections of my last comment that would allow you to partially answer this question yourself. Perhaps instead of replying only to the parts you feel like, you could read the full response and internalize it?

When are you going to start justifying any of your positions?

I haven't made the error if saying a bunch of silly, very specific things that disagree with reality. But you already said something like this and I already answered it.

[–] rammer@sopuli.xyz 1 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I don’t know what those sentences mean. You're such an expert on Russia that you have never heard of defenestration. I bet you haven't heard of any of these people either.

Remember, your claim is that Russia is hiding the real toll. So you must know it yourself and be able to explain how it is being hidden. When was the last time Russia officially released casualty figures? It hasn't since the very beginning of the war. And even then they were laughably inaccurate. Instead they have been saying that everything is going according to plan.

Show me your most realistic estimate source. UK, Economist, Ukraine. They all agree on this.

That is a very specific number Yes, because they are the ones who have been found through obituaries and verified. No guesswork involved.

You did not answer my question. You didn't understand my answer.

This does not address what I said. Yes, it does. You said Russia can easily trade with the outside world. Going through middle-men in not easy, cheap or fast.

What financials yell you the number of tanks Russia is currently producing? The financial reports of Uralvagonzavod. At least it gives and upper bound to the number of tanks they are able to produce.

My comments have mostly been to poke holes in the absurdities and ask you to make your implied knowledge consistent with your claims. You have done nothing of the sort. You have ignored the direct evidence I have provided instead kept stead arguing that you are correct while providing no evidence for it.

The 9% number is quarterly, for the year it will be around 7. Germany’s inflation rate in 2023 was around 6. It was around 4 in the UK for the same year, hitting 9% for a quarter the year prior. The US had rates of 7-9% in 2021-2022. Italy’s was 8 in 2022 and 5ish in 2023.

You are not comparing like for like. You are taking figures from a time period when Russian figures were even worse. Way worse. And comparing them to the best Russia had. While it is true that the official figures for 2023 show inflation lower than the west. I wouldn't completely trust those figures. Since they are not explained by any external factors.

Ah yes, this is why 1950s America was just one big recession. The reason there wasn't is because USA was just about the only industrialized nation capable of mass producing things after WW2. And they had massive orders from Europe. Helping them rebuild. I don't see that happening with Russia. People aren't exactly demanding Russian industrial products.

Ah, looks like I am wrong.....Still not weak, however. The mental gymnastics you have to go through to keep your opinion without providing any evidence on full display here.

Both wages and employment are up, actually. Just a few comments ago you were arguing that wages weren't rising and now they are. Which is it. Employment is up because there is a worker shortage.

You ignored sections of my last comment that would allow you to partially answer this question yourself. Perhaps instead of replying only to the parts you feel like, you could read the full response and internalize it? I suggest you do the same.

I haven’t made the error if saying a bunch of silly, very specific things that disagree with reality. Ah, looks like I am wrong Which is it?

You have made specific claims that you have never proven or have been proven be factually incorrect. Even when I have repeatedly asked for proof you have not provided it. Instead you have demanded that I do all the heavy lifting. Which I am no longer willing to do.

Good day, sir.

[–] TheOubliette@lemmy.ml 1 points 3 months ago

You're such an expert on Russia that you have never heard of defenestration.

I said I didn't understand the sentences, not individual words. Ironic that your response is condescending despite your simple error.

I bet you haven't heard of any of these people either.

What about it?

I can only understand your point if you actually state it coherently. I would prefer not to guess.

When was the last time Russia officially released casualty figures? It hasn't since the very beginning of the war. And even then they were laughably inaccurate. Instead they have been saying that everything is going according to plan.

This is irrelevant to anything I've said. What is your logic, here? What do you think you are responding to?

UK, Economist, Ukraine. They all agree on this.

I asked for your best source. You listed two nation-states and the name of a magazine.

Again: show me your best source. You have a very specific claim. Where does it come from? There are numbers. Show me those numbers.

You didn't understand my answer.

No, I did understand it - as a deflection that avoided answering my question. Please try again in good faith.

Yes, it does. You said Russia can easily trade with the outside world. Going through middle-men in not easy, cheap or fast.

You are confused. What actually happened is that you asked me why Russia was using middlemen and I answeted that it is because they provide an easy way around financial restrictions. You are now trying to quibble about the meaning of "easy" and introducing quantities like expense and delay, but this does not actually address anything meaningful in my response. I think you have forgotten why you even asked the question. You even left out half of my original response, lol.

The financial reports of Uralvagonzavod. At least it gives and upper bound to the number of tanks they are able to produce.

Is that so? Can you show me these financials?

You have done nothing of the sort

Please try to be less contrarian and instead participate in good faith. It is an obvious truth that I have mostly been poking holes in your claims. This, combined with yiu not asking questions, is why you are now so frustrated that I've asked you for further backing for your always-multiplying claims and I haven't had to provide additional specifics on basically anything.

You have ignored the direct evidence I have provided

I have actually quoted and responded directly to everything you have said. Please do your best to be accurate in your statements.

instead kept stead arguing that you are correct while providing no evidence for it.

I have provided plenty of specifics comporting with my claims but my offer still stands for teaching you how to ask questions.

You are not comparing like for like. You are taking figures from a time period when Russian figures were even worse. [...]

It is countries comparable in different ways and it is within the last few years. It shows that the current inflation rate is within norms that make some people hand wring but nothing like an emergency. If we wanted to really dive in we would need to look at real wages. Again, you are objectively wrong that this is much worse. It is okay to admit when you are wrong about something.

For comparison, what is Argentina's current inflation rate?

The reason there wasn't is because USA was just about the only industrialized nation capable of mass producing things after WW2. [...]

Oh, so you know that the vague generalization you made is wrong? Glad we are in agreement, then.

The mental gymnastics you have to go through to keep your opinion without providing any evidence on full display.

No, that was an example of basic humility and then moving forward. The fact that it seems alien and wrong to you may explain why you keep choosing to die on absurd hills and multiply incorrect attempts at nitpicking. Ask yourself why you can't just say, "a 7% yearly inflation rate is in line with comparable countries in the last few years". Would it mean that PUTIN WINS!?

Just a few comments ago you were arguing that wages weren't rising and now they are.

No I wasn't.

I suggest you do the same.

The salient difference here is that I do that and you don't. Another trivial fact that you must, against all reason, dispute.

Which is it?

The two are not incompatible. I will wait for you to think about it and then tell me how you think that could be the case.

You have made specific claims that you have never proven or have been proven be factually incorrect.

Only one claim, actually, and it was just me forgetting the newer stats and instead recollecting of the ruble from last year. This is not comparable to 20-30 specious claims. It is also quite different in that I easily acknowledge a trivial error and move on while you (1) double down on every absurdity with new silly generalizations and guesswork and (2) seem to think that it is actually a bad thing to acknowledge a trivial error and move on.

Very revealing.

Even when I have repeatedly asked for proof you have not provided it.

You're just making things up, now. Show one (1) example of you repeatedly asking for proof and me not doing do.

Instead you have demanded that I do all the heavy lifting. Which I am no longer willing to do.

No, I've just asked you to back up claims. It's not my fault you have decided to make so many, and while clearly hastily Googling things. There would be fewer if you could acknowledge the obviously true things I say instead of trying to pick new fights about them.

Good day, sir.

Please avoid the use of gendered assumptions.