this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2024
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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[โ€“] solo@slrpnk.net 4 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

From the link you provided, it looks like in 2021 it was 4.2 not 7.5. Apart from that, this approach sounds too speculative to me, since the production comes from 2021 and the CO~2~ emissions quota from 2023. In the Drax chart it shows a decline in TWh produced from 2017 to 2021 (btw 2021 is also the year they retired coal). Still, assuming from this trend that their production few years latter continues to decline is something I would consider too risky to do.

  • 2017 -> 14.9
  • 2018 -> 11.7
  • 2019 -> 10.2
  • 2020 -> 7.5
  • 2021 -> 4.2

The Ratcliffe chart has so many fluctuations till 2021 that I couldn't dare guess what their 2023 production was.

  • 2017 -> 2.6
  • 2018 -> 3.2
  • 2019 -> 0.7
  • 2020 -> 0.1
  • 2021 -> 0.8

If I find the 2023 numbers, I'll add a comment or edit this one.

[โ€“] MrMakabar@slrpnk.net 2 points 2 months ago

Thanks. Fixed the original comment.