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I haven't read anything about what hamas thought would happen after the October 7th attack. Did they think Israel would do nothing because hamas had hostages?
Or were they trying to prompt a huge response? Certainly the abhorrent despicable acts perpetrated against women that were detailed in the article are something no one would ignore. Similar to Bucha in Ukraine, the horror won't make people surrender, just the opposite.
I haven’t been able to find a good answer to that either.
One of the speculations that I’ve heard kicked around is that they were trying to do something that would light a fuse, but there was no follow up. Hamas isn’t a bunch of student rebels out of Les Miserables, throwing caution to the wind but not having done the actual groundwork. It was a small attack that happened to have what I suspect was a far larger impact than they imagined. They obviously were doing prep work for the attack itself, if the stories we’re reading are to be believed, but it was a modest-sized incursion without coordination with either the West Bank or Lebanon assets. I think it was a terrorist attack - and I am not someone who throws that word around lightly - but I don’t think that they thought it was going to be this big of a hit.
I think it’s analogous to 9/11 where OBL wasn’t expecting the whole towers falling thing, and while trying to provoke a response, the US over-response exceeded his expectations. I don’t know if Hamas will survive this as an organization, but it’s really affected the global perception of Israel.
No it was not a small attack. It was light infantry against a full miltary but not small. It was planned and they stockpiled weapons and material to last months. What they were not expecting was to walk over the IDF military on the border (none of the videos released by the IDF show Hamas doing this). They were not expecting to get throught the defences so easily to get to the settlements. Remember most of the population of Gaza was ethnically cleansed from the land that these settlements are built on.
They are still fighting. The IDF is using tanks in urban warfare (this is a big tactical no no), so Hamas have the IDF where they want them. Even 2 months into the fighting we still see daily videos of IDF tanks (USD 3 million) being destroyed by rocket launchers (USD 200).
Strategically the Palestinians were being thrown under a bus by the rest of the Arabs so this attack put Hamas in control. It also destroyed the image of Israeli comptence which is a huge propaganda win.
If you look at the prisoner exchanges and the interviews afterwards you see the Israeli prisoners were treated well in captivity and the release was well managed and competent. This especially does not align with the story in the NY Times here. The release of the Palestinian prisoners was chaotic (tear gas was used in some places) and the prsioners were tortured and released with broken bones in some cases.
Although some of those kidnapped from Israel were given adequate food, clothing, bedding, and other necessities (what I assume you mean by "treated well"), others were subjected to psychological torture, denied lifesaving medicine and basic medical treatment, and assaulted, including children.
All of them were taken from their homes at gunpoint, some of them pulled from under the bodies of their murdered families, some of them non-fatally shot or seriously injured. Some of them have no homes or families to return to. The hostage release appeared orderly because Hamas threatened to harm their other family still held hostage if they said anything bad, and because Israel and Egypt worked together from Oct. 8 to carefully plan the safe and orderly transfer. Hamas in the West Bank and the PA had basically no plan to receive the released Palestinian prisoners, so there was chaos.
The whole "hostages were treated well" is such a weird talking point to me.
Weren't some hostages also drugged so they'd be "happy and smiling" for the cameras when released? I heard that, but don't know the authenticity.
Edit: I found many news sources that said they were. I know some folks don't trust anything Israel says so take reports like this with a grain of salt. Still, it's been confirmed that many of the hostages were drugged while in captivity. Especially the kids - to keep them quiet. (Anyone with little kids knows they can be loud while scared and this must have been extremely scary. As a father, the reaction of "drug the little kids" makes me angry.)