Predictions

cross-posted from: https://lemy.lol/post/22844267

Need Opinion.

What do you think is the right way to play this bet in the polygon prediction market?

Is playing contrarian gonna give a huge pay off?

Or Is going with the market trends going to help make decent but sure shot gains of 4-5%?

By the way the election result is to be declared on June 4th, 2024.

I still see most people in his favour despite everything.

I personally don't like Modi much but as a business decision there are higher odds in betting in support of him.

What are your thoughts on this?

After dinner time discussion, my gf asked me to make a record.

In 5 years...

10% of search traffic is paid.

Reddit is primarily a short form video website (like Tiktok).

SpaceX predictions are fun...

At least, the community prediction is only at 24% right now. Personally, I'm at 60%.

This market is very active currently. Bets are piling up for Yes and No positions, so there seem to be strong opinions on both sides.

Or do it like a the naughty social media normie that you and cite your horoscope

For example, things like this:

Some models might be able to answer this precise question correctly, but they will still fail at many simple primary-school-level math questions.

More examples in my comment here.

And the worst part is that, with so many companies shifting to work-from-home. it will create a culture (especially for early-career workers) that's less "work from home" and more "live at work." You'll be on call 24-hours a day, reachable at all times. And, for early-career workers getting out of college, it won't even seem like a strange transition from college dorms and fraternity/sorority houses to company housing.

Not only will this lead to a culture where just living on your own at all is a major achievement, it will create a culture where workers don't own much of their own, because they have little storage space. It also means that leaving or job or (god forbid) getting fired or laid off will also render you homeless almost immediately.

Maybe I should shh up before I start giving these companies ideas.