Europe

Archived link: https://archive.is/9ju2g

European leaders should be prepared to send military forces to Ukraine to underpin any peace deal engineered by Donald Trump between Kyiv and Moscow, Estonia’s foreign minister has said.

Margus Tsahkna told the Financial Times that the best security guarantee for Ukraine was Nato membership, as requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But if the US was opposed to inviting Kyiv to join the military alliance, Europe would have to step in with troop deployments once the fighting was over to deter further Russian aggression.

“If we are talking about real security guarantees, it means that there will be a just peace. Then we are talking about Nato membership,” said Tsahkna. “But without the US it is impossible. And then we are talking about any form [of guarantee] in the meaning of boots on the ground.”

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Tsahkna said he did not believe Trump would abandon Nato because it was not in America’s political or economic interests to leave Europe at the mercy of an imperialist Russia. But the Europeans would have to show they were willing to invest more in their own defence.

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With Ukraine now seen as Nato’s first line of defence, it was Europe’s security architecture that could be reshaped in the coming months and not just Ukraine’s fate, he said.

“We just cannot wait on whatever the US decides.”

**The Russian economy is showing more and more signs that growth is slowing, and economists are beginning to talk more and more about stagflation – a combination of low growth and high inflation. As no-one can openly blame the Ukraine war, the Central Bank highlights “external factors,” while business leaders and government-connected economists blame the Central Bank for imposing record high interest rates. **

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An economic slowdown is a very serious problem during a period of high inflation. And, in modern Russia, it is impossible to treat it using Reaganite methods: slashing spending and reducing regulation to attract foreign investment. Cutting funding for the war and the defense sector is politically inconceivable in Russia at the moment. Even acknowledging that the war and sanctions triggered this cycle of overheating and decline is impossible. That means the Central Bank may well end up being held responsible.

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The Central Bank earlier this month published a report analyzing financial flows. The conclusion was that Russia is on the verge of an economic slowdown. In October, the volume of incoming payments via the Central Bank’s payment system (about half of all payments made in Russia) was down 2.9% compared with the third quarter average. This sort of decline was visible in all industries the Central Bank studied.

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The slowdown is not simply due to declining output in the raw material extraction industries (this has been ongoing for several months amid falling export prices), but also a stuttering manufacturing sector. The only place growth is still noticeable is in sectors linked to the military. Everywhere else in the economy growth is absent, or, at best, anemic.

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All this data has prompted economists to revise downward their projections for Russian GDP growth.

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In a report published Monday, economists from the Institute of Forecasting at Russia’s Academy of Science said that “slowing economic activity and deterioration of financial indicators are becoming increasingly evident in a number of sectors.” And Russia’s Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF) spoke openly in a report Wednesday about possible stagflation. The center (run by the brother of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov) flagged the risk of a recession and falling productivity, especially in low-profit sectors and industries with long project implementation timeframes.

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Russian business leaders line up to attack Nabiullina

Executives at big Russian companies who are unhappy with interest rates at 21% have been angrily criticizing the Central Bank and its head, Elvira Nabiullina. Influential lobby group, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), this week even suggested forcing the Central Bank to coordinate its monetary policy with the government.

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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/47755199

https://archive.is/k6cjX

Regions in Portugal, Greece, and Romania reported the highest fatality rates. While EU-wide road deaths rose by about 9% between 2020 and 2022, the long-term trend offers hope.

A Russian spy ship has been escorted out of the Irish Sea after it entered Irish-controlled waters and patrolled an area containing critical energy and internet submarine pipelines and cables.

It was spotted on Thursday east of Dublin and south-west of the Isle of Man but Norwegian, US, French and British navy and air defence services initially observed it accompanying a Russian warship, the Admiral Golovko, through the English channel last weekend.

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Its presence has raised fresh concerns about the security of the interconnector cables that run between Ireland and the UK carrying global internet traffic from huge datacentres operated by tech companies including Google and Microsoft, which have their EU headquarters sited in Ireland.

The sighting of the Russian intelligence ship came as British defence forces monitored other Russian vessels near its eastern coastal waters. On Thursday, British jets were also scrambled to monitor a Russian reconnaissance aircraft flying close to UK airspace, the Ministry of Defence said.

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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/47747375

Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck, who is currently the Green Party's chancellor candidate in the upcoming elections, said that if elected, he would send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked his allies for long-range weapons so that the Ukrainian military can attack Russian logistics centers and military bases far behind the front line and within Russian territory.

But until now, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has chosen not to supply Taurus cruise missiles, saying they could enable Ukraine to also hit targets in the Russian capital Moscow.

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Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron reacted to the Russian air barrage on Ukraine, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin "does not want peace and is not ready to negotiate."

"It's clear that President Putin intends to intensify the fighting," Macron said.

He made the remarks as he prepared to leave Argentina to attend the G20 Summit in Brazil.

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The French president, however, said Ukraine's allies "must remain united .... on an agenda for genuine peace, that is to say, a peace that does not mean Ukraine's surrender."

Macron highlighted that his country's priority was to "equip, support and help Ukraine to resist."

At least three Russian oil refineries could face closures next year as declining exports, high crude oil costs and soaring interest rates lead to mounting financial losses, Reuters reported Friday, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter.

The Tuapse refinery, a large but “relatively unsophisticated” facility owned by the state-backed oil giant Rosneft, has reportedly halted production multiple times this year. Smaller independent refineries, Ilsky in Krasnodar and Novoshakhtinsky in Rostov, have been operating at half capacity for months due to weak profit margins.

The struggling refineries, which are said to have sought financial support from the government, were also targeted in Ukrainian drone strikes this year. These disruptions have been compounded by the impact of Western sanctions, which force them to sell fuel at discounted rates.

“We expect that the actual [plant] closures may take place at the beginning of next year,” a source says.

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The Netherlands' foreign minister, whose ministry oversees export restrictions on top computer chip equipment maker ASML, said on Monday that China-Russia trade was "directly affecting" European security.

NATO views China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia in its war against Ukraine, given that Chinese firms are selling goods that end up as components in Russian weapons, including drones, Caspar Veldkamp said before a meeting with European Union foreign ministers in Brussels.

"I raised this twice with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I think as Europeans we should all do this, because this is something that China should be realizing: it is directly affecting European security," Veldkamp said.

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The Dutch government has rolled out a series of progressively tighter export restrictions preventing ASML from shipping its most advanced technology to Chinese chipmakers.

ASML dominates the market for lithography tools, which are essential for making the circuitry of computer chips.

Despite the restrictions, China has still been the largest market for ASML and other top U.S. and Japanese equipment makers over the past year and a half, as Chinese firms expand capacity to make older chips not covered by restrictions, but still adequate for many military purposes.

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Veldkamp said he would discuss what to do about Chinese support for Russia with other EU foreign ministers on Monday.

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[The article is an analysis of the cooperation agreement signed between Finland and China by two Finnish scholars.]

Geopolitical tensions were prominently featured in the discussions between the two heads of state [of Finland and China during Finland's president in Beijing this week]. In contrast to the laudatory tone of the Chinese media, the the Finnish President's official press release stated that the central topic of the talks was Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, as had been the focus of previous visits of EU leaders as well. [Finnish President] Stubb, who earlier stated [Chinese President] Xi could end the war in Ukraine with “just one phone call”, reportedly focused on convincing the Chinese president of the importance of the conflict for Finland and the rest of the European Union, emphasizing that Putin could not be trusted.

Yet apparently, China cannot be completely trusted either. Far from boosting cooperation, the New Joint Action Plan signed by Finland and China represents a reality different from the praises in Chinese media. Strikingly, the plan, which describes the main avenues of Sino-Finnish future cooperation, is only five pages long [and] the focal points of the plan give an impression of shrinking cooperation.

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The Arctic domain is entirely absent from the new Sino-Finnish action plan. In contrast to the 2019 plan, which envisioned deepening Arctic cooperation in the fields of law, research and marine technology, the new plan does not mention the Arctic at all.

The omission is rather unsurprising. Since the signing of the 2019 plan, the Arctic security situation has changed dramatically and Finland’s Arctic projects involving Chinese stakeholders have been quietly cancelled or put on ice. Examples include the termination of the planned Arctic railway project connecting Norway’s Kirkenes and Rovaniemi, and the Finnish security authorities’ refusal to provide satellite services to China in the Arctic Space Center in Sodankylä or to rent an airport for Arctic research flights near the Finnish Defence Forces’ firing range in Kemijärvi.

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This state of affairs reflects broader suspicion towards Chinese intentions, as the Finnish media have increasingly reported on the covert activities of Chinese “united front groups” and scholars with connections to military-civilian fusion projects, for instance. Finally, in 2023, a Chinese container vessel, on its way to St. Petersburg via the Arctic Northeastern passage, destroyed a gas pipeline linking Finland and Estonia. Before its ill-fated journey, the vessel, Newnew Polar Bear, was celebrated in the Chinese media as a harbinger of increased Arctic cooperation between China and Russia. Whether the incident was intentional or not (the investigation is still ongoing), it caused a flurry of media speculation on a possible Chinese grey-zone operation in the Baltic Sea.

Since officially launching its Polar Silk Road in 2017, China has attempted to expand its presence within the Arctic countries through economic, diplomatic and scientific cooperation, but it now seems that the Arctic leg of the Belt and Road is not extending to Finland or into its neighbouring Nordic countries either. Consequently, China's Arctic expansion now increasingly relies on Russia.

Finland’s distancing from Arctic cooperation with China reflects deeper dynamics than mere domestic concerns. As the great power competition between “democratic” and “authoritarian” camps intensifies, Finland is increasingly “de-risking” from China, while integrating with its Western partners.

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Finland’s changed approach to China provides the latest example for the Chinese leadership that there is a price to be paid for its “strategic straddle”; attempting to maintain business-as-usual relations with Europe while de facto enabling a brutal invasion in Ukraine. Naturally, this straddle is most severely felt in Russian neighbour states, including Finland, which shares the longest border with Russia in Europe.

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Symbolic of the deteriorating Sino-Finnish relations, two giant pandas leased to Ähtäri zoo by China in 2017 are set to return to China eight years ahead of schedule due to financial problems. One might ask whether this reflects a broader reality for China’s Arctic cooperation in the future?

A fault has been discovered in a vital submarine fiber-optic telecom cable linking Finland and Germany. The outage is currently under investigation by the Finnish cyber security and network company Cinia, which is state-controlled.

Cinia reported that the services facilitated by the C-Lion1 cable are presently down due to the fault. Efforts are underway to identify the precise cause of this issue, affecting a key infrastructure component between the two countries.

The company's statement emphasized their commitment to quickly resolving the disruption to restore communication services back to operation

Moldova's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on November 17 condemned “false and unfounded statements” by Russia's newly appointed ambassador to Chisinau, Oleg Ozerov, following his comments on a Russian radio station.

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In his interview, Ozerov claimed that Moldova’s economy depends heavily on Russian trade and suggested that EU accession undermines its neutrality. Moldova's foreign ministry refuted this, noting that over 65% of Moldova's exports go to the EU, compared to just 3.7% to Russia. Even Moldova’s breakaway Transnistrian region, which is backed by Russia, sends over 80% of its exports to EU markets.

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The ministry criticised Russia for imposing politically motivated trade embargoes, contrasting this with the EU’s transparent trade rules. “EU countries are reliable partners for Moldova's agricultural goods, while Russia's embargoes have harmed local producers and families,” it said.

Addressing neutrality, the ministry highlighted Russia’s violation of Moldova's constitutional neutrality through its military presence in the Transnistrian region, maintained against Moldova’s will.

It dismissed the suggestion that EU membership compromises neutrality, citing Austria, Ireland and Malta as neutral EU member states.

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[Molodova] urged Ozerov to adhere to the Vienna Convention and cease spreading propaganda, focusing instead on diplomatic norms and practical solutions to benefit citizens in both countries.

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

President Biden has authorized the first use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia, U.S. officials said.

The weapons are likely to be initially employed against Russian and North Korean troops in defense of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of western Russia, the officials said.

Mr. Biden’s decision is a major change in U.S. policy. The choice has divided his advisers, and his shift comes two months before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, having vowed to limit further support for Ukraine.

Allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, came in response to Russia’s surprise decision to bring North Korean troops into the fight, officials said.

Mr. Biden began to ease restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian soil after Russia launched a cross-border assault in May in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

To help the Ukrainians defend Kharkiv, Mr. Biden allowed them to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which have a range of about 50 miles, against Russian forces directly across the border. But Mr. Biden did not allow the Ukrainians to use longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, in defense of Kharkiv.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/22163141

Summary

German manufacturers warn of a severe economic crisis driven by high energy costs, inflation, labor shortages, bureaucratic burdens, and declining demand in key markets like China.

The manufacturing sector, including firms like Volkswagen, Beckhoff Automation, and Ziehl-Abegg, faces stiff competition from China’s booming exports, especially in electric vehicles.

Political instability and inconsistent government policies have worsened the outlook, leading to job loss fears and restructuring.

cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/47698444

https://archive.is/rFonq

As French farmers take to the streets to oppose a potential free trade deal between the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc in South America, we take a closer look at what the agreement entails and why the French agricultural sector and government are so strongly opposed. Also in this edition, Donald Trump nominates a fossil fuel industry CEO to head the Energy Department and a Big Tech critic to lead the Federal Communications Commission.