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"Antarctic ecosystems could be disrupted by animals, diseases and rubbish floating from Africa and Australia as rising temperatures melt sea ice buffers, new research suggests..."

Conclusions

This has been, by intention, a retrospective review of economic trends dating back to 1980. But most of us are interested, not just in where we’ve come from, but in where we’re going.

The ‘big factors’ that emerge from our retrospective analysis can be listed as follows.

1. Both the non-energy resource base and the ex-cost economic value of energy have been depleting markedly, trends greatly exacerbated by relentless increases in population numbers.

2. Most of the “growth” reported in financial aggregates has been cosmetic, a product of ignoring debt and other liabilities, disregarding ECoE, and excluding natural resource depletion from our measurement of economic output.

3. Four decades of reported “growth” have, in fact, seen material economic prosperity barely outperform the rate of growth in the global population.

These underlying trends are continuing. Comparing 2040 with 2023, we can expect the Energy Cost of Energy to rise by about 75%, and the conversion ratio of natural resources into economic value to continue to decrease. Significantly, aggregate energy production is likely to decline, with falls in fossil fuels output only partly offset by increases in the supply of renewables.

On this basis, the aggregate of material economic output is likely to fall by around 18%.

If population numbers continue to increase – albeit at a decelerating rate – the World’s average person is likely to be fully 27% less prosperous in 2040 than he or she is today. At the same time, the cost of necessities per capita is projected to be about 40% higher in 2040 than it is today.

As well as pushing the affordability of discretionary (non-essential) products and services sharply downwards, this trend will undermine the ability of households to support their enormously-expanded commitments to the financial system.

If past form is anything to go by, decision-makers, far from accepting actual economic reality and acting accordingly, are likely to carry on trying to stimulate the material economy with monetary tools.

On this basis, a “GFC II” sequel to the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has now been hard-wired into the system.

The decisions that we make are ours alone, but the effectiveness of our choices – financial, occupational, political, social and perhaps even geographical – can only be enhanced if we opt for facts in preference to myths.

Abstract

The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas.

Radio Ecoshock 2019-03-13

We are living in a time of mass extinction of species large and small. How serious is that? What are the rules of extinction? Two scientists, Italian and Australian, investigated. Their study published November 2018 in Nature contains unpleasant surprises.

Our guest is Dr. Corey Bradshaw. He is the Matthew Flinders Fellow in Global Ecology, at Flinders University in South Australia. Corey has published at least 300 papers and three books. His latest is “The Effective Scientist: A Handy Guide to a Successful Academic Career”.

https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/03/the-rules-of-extinction.html

Abstract

Safe drinking water access is a human right, but data on safely managed drinking water services (SMDWS) is lacking for more than half of the global population. We estimate SMDWS use in 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at subnational levels with a geospatial modeling approach, combining existing household survey data with available global geospatial datasets. We estimate that only one in three people used SMDWS in LMICs in 2020 and identified fecal contamination as the primary limiting factor affecting almost half of the population of LMICs. Our results are relevant for raising awareness about the challenges and limitations of current global monitoring approaches and demonstrating how globally available geospatial data can be leveraged to fill data gaps and identify priority areas in LMICs.

Abstract

Few studies report the occurrence of microplastics (MP), including tire wear particles (TWP) in the marine atmosphere, and little data is available regarding their size or sources. Here we present active air sampling devices (low- and high-volume samplers) for the evaluation of composition and MP mass loads in the marine atmosphere. Air was sampled during a research cruise along the Norwegian coast up to Bear Island. Samples were analyzed with pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, generating a mass-based data set for MP in the marine atmosphere. Here we show the ubiquity of MP, even in remote Arctic areas with concentrations up to 37.5 ng m−3. Cluster of polyethylene terephthalate (max. 1.5 ng m−3) were universally present. TWP (max. 35 ng m−3) and cluster of polystyrene, polypropylene, and polyurethane (max. 1.1 ng m−3) were also detected. Atmospheric transport and dispersion models, suggested the introduction of MP into the marine atmosphere equally from sea- and land-based emissions, transforming the ocean from a sink into a source for MP.

Abstract

Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to destabilize mercury (Hg) deposits contained within soils in permafrost regions. Yet current estimates of the amount of Hg in permafrost vary by ∼4 times. Moreover, how Hg will be released to the environment as permafrost thaws remains poorly known, despite threats to water quality, human health, and the environment. Here we present new measurements of total mercury (THg) contents in discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. We collected riverbank and floodplain sediments from exposed banks and bars near the villages of Huslia and Beaver. Median THg contents were 49+13/−21 ng THg g sediment−1 and 39+16/−18 ng THg g sediment−1 for Huslia and Beaver, respectively (uncertainties as 15th and 85th percentiles). Corresponding THg:organic carbon ratios were 5.4+2.0/−2.4 Gg THg Pg C−1 and 4.2 +2.4/−2.9 Gg THg Pg C−1. To constrain floodplain THg stocks, we combined measured THg contents with floodplain stratigraphy. Trends of THg increasing with smaller sediment size and calculated stocks in the upper 1 m and 3 m are similar to those suggested for this region by prior pan-Arctic studies. We combined THg stocks and river migration rates derived from remote sensing to estimate particulate THg erosional and depositional fluxes as river channels migrate across the floodplain. Results show similar fluxes within uncertainty into the river from erosion at both sites (95+12/−47 kg THg yr−1 and 26+154/−13 kg THg yr−1 at Huslia and Beaver, respectively), but different fluxes out of the river via deposition in aggrading bars (60+40/−29 kg THg yr−1 and 10+5.3/−1.7 kg THg yr−1). Thus, a significant amount of THg is liberated from permafrost during bank erosion, while a variable but generally lesser portion is subsequently redeposited by migrating rivers.

Abstract

Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a). How to cite.

Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., Hartley, A. J., Lombardi, A., Mataveli, G., McNorton, J. R., Spuler, F. R., Wessel, J. B., Abatzoglou, J. T., Anderson, L. O., Andela, N., Archibald, S., Armenteras, D., Burke, E., Carmenta, R., Chuvieco, E., Clarke, H., Doerr, S. H., Fernandes, P. M., Giglio, L., Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Harris, S., Jain, P., Kolden, C. A., Kurvits, T., Lampe, S., Meier, S., New, S., Parrington, M., Perron, M. M. G., Qu, Y., Ribeiro, N. S., Saharjo, B. H., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Shuman, J. K., Tanpipat, V., van der Werf, G. R., Veraverbeke, S., and Xanthopoulos, G.: State of Wildfires 2023–2024, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 3601–3685, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024, 2024.

Received: 02 Jun 2024 – Discussion started: 13 Jun 2024 – Revised: 25 Jul 2024 – Accepted: 29 Jul 2024 – Published: 14 Aug 2024