Alternative link

After our research on which websites are spreading pro-Russian narratives and talking points that benefit Moscow, we decided to take a closer look at websites in German. During the analysis, we found publications that quote Russian state media, that receive back quotes from them, and that spread claims that could play into the hands of the Kremlin.

During the content analysis, we found that there are several key areas among pro-Russian narratives in Europe in general and in Germany in particular. Let’s highlight a few of them and provide examples below.

• ‘The West and NATO are to blame for the war in Ukraine.’
• ‘Ukraine is a proxy state for the West.’
• ‘Ukraine and the West are losing; Russia is winning.’
• ‘Russia is fighting NATO forces in Ukraine.’
• ‘The French and other NATO troops are already present in Ukraine.’
• ‘Nuclear threats from Russia.’
• ‘The inexpediency of Western support for Ukraine.’
• ‘The West is declining and losing influence in the world.’
• ‘Favorable coverage for right-wing radical parties in light of the elections.’
• ‘Fake news about the Ukrainian government sending children to the frontlines, as well as pregnant women being sent to the trenches.’

'Shifting the blame for the war to the West’

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian propaganda machine has been blaming Ukraine, Western countries, NATO, and the EU for the war. Moscow claims that it felt threatened by Ukraine, that it came to protect the people of Donbas, and that NATO’s eastward expansion is to blame. This way, Russia is trying to justify its invasion and shift the blame for the war to the West.

“The attacks on eastern Ukraine, which began in 2014, i.e. after the Maidan coup, were carried out from Kiev. Russia has repeatedly (since 2014) pushed for a peaceful solution for eastern Ukraine. Putin demanded, bead and argued. But he was ignored until February 2022.” (https://apolut.net/die-auswanderhilfe-moya-rossiya-von-tom-j-wellbrock/)

“In 2014, the regime in Kiev started a war against Donbass… The West is arming Ukraine and pushing the Ukrainian dictator to launch a new campaign against the Donbass. The Russian army intervenes in 2022.”(https://weltnetz.tv/story/2982-russische-praesidentschaftswahl-2024-fehlkalkulation-des-westens)

“It turns the war into a big hybrid conflict between East and West, which spreads hatred, destruction and misery.”(https://zeitpunkt.ch/der-bisher-beste-text-zum-verstaendnis-des-ukraine-konflikts)

The now outbreak Ukraine war is above all a long-prepared proxy war between the USA and Russia for geopolitical interests, with the Ukrainians on the battlefield. Because the USA and the West have been pursuing the declared goal of including Ukraine in NATO since the NATO Summit in 2008 at the latest. (https://www.telepolis.de/features/Ukraine-Krieg-Warum-wir-den-Aufstand-fuer-den-Frieden-brauchen-7533383.html)

'Ukraine and its allies have lost’

According to all of the propaganda bases, the Kremlin media are convinced that Russian troops have suffered almost no losses, while the Ukrainian army is suffering high casualties. The Kremlin media presents any Russian advance, even the capture of a village at the cost of several hundred soldiers, as a great achievement. Instead, the Russians downplay their own losses. The goal is to instill fear and force concessions to Putin’s demands.

“With each day of the Ukraine war, the chance of an independent future of the country becomes smaller.”(https://apolut.net/deutschland-und-die-ukraine/)

“Ukraine is also only helped in the short term. Because the money and the weapons are not enough in the back and front.”(https://lostineu.eu/ukraine-israel-taiwan-die-usa-giessen-oel-ins-feuer/)

“The bet on the effectiveness of NATO weapons, as time has shown, did not work, the praised leopards and Bradleys and other Western equipment burn, and very well.”(https://www.extremnews.com/nachrichten/weltgeschehen/e24c1930524c298)

“Ukraine has already lost militarily.” (https://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/ex-general-kujat-frage-der-zeit-bis-die-ukraine-militaerisch-vollends-unterliegt-10096537/)

“Either the escalation of the Ukraine war to a great European war with world war potential or a great loss of face and power of the West, especially the superpower USA based on the dollar dominance.”(https://www.pi-news.net/2024/05/grosser-krieg-oder-grosser-machtverlust/)

“The benefit of the Leopard tanks, which were handed over to Kiev from the West, is currently “zero” while Russian equipment for electronic warfare successfully fights Western drones, according to experts.” (https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/nutzlose-leoparden-und-keine-zusaetzlichen-patriots-die-ereignisse-des-22-april/)

“Terrible losses:Bodies of Ukrainian soldiers are disposed of on the battlefield, morgues are not allowed to provide information.” (https://uncutnews.ch/schreckliche-verluste-leichen-ukrainischer-soldaten-werden-auf-dem-schlachtfeld-entsorgt-leichenhallen-duerfen-keine-auskunft-geben/)

“In Ukraine, the sale of the two-legged human material is currently underway. There, the decision-makers may have put many billions in their pockets and until the last Ukrainian is burned, this profitable business model is also to be maintained.” (https://qpress.de/2024/04/29/ukraine-demokratie-frieden-menschenrechte-weg/)

“In addition, there is the possibility that a Ukrainian army, which is exhausted and bled out by years of failed offensives, will eventually fall victim to a Russian counterattack, which would lead to far greater territorial losses than Ukraine has suffered so far. The French ex-president offers a diplomatic way out. The commentators react with “pro-Putin” insults. What’s behind the witch hunt.”(https://www.telepolis.de/features/Sarkozy-verunglimpft-weil-er-unbequeme-Wahrheit-ueber-die-Ukraine-ausspricht-9293539.html)

‘“Nazis” in Ukraine’

The Kremlin media used traditional ‘Nazi’ disinformation to discredit all Ukrainians and justify the war. In this way, Russian and pro-Russian propaganda also diverts attention from the fact that it was the Putin regime that started the aggressive and neocolonial war against a sovereign state, in violation of international law.

“While in Germany it claims to take action against people allegedly close to the Nazis, it supports a real Nazi regime in Kiev with billions.”(https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2024/deutschland-laedt-vertreter-russlands-von-gedenkfeiern-zur-befreiung-von-konzentrationslagern-aus/?doing_wp_cron=1713875058.6111850738525390625000)

“One could actually be grateful to the Tagesschau for providing the public proof of the Nazi background of the Ukrainian regime.” (https://apolut.net/ukraine-soldaten-als-deutsche/)

“It also conveys why Putin is now resolutely fighting against Nazis in Ukraine and sets legitimate conditions for the government.” (https://de.sott.net/article/35437-Dokumentation-Ukraine-on-Fire-Hintergrunde-zur-Farbrevolution-in-der-Ukraine-2013)

“Zelensky is a Nazi in sweatpants”(https://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/selenskij-ist-ein-nazi-in-jogginghose-10094886/)

“The Nazi regime in Kiev, supported by NATO and the EU, is the structure that threatens to trigger a new world war in Europe that would lead to a global wildfire.” (https://uncutnews.ch/europaeisches-parlament-verleumdet-russland-und-finanziert-nazi-terrorismus/)

"My narrative was not consistent with the narrative of NATO, and maybe that was a problem. The narrative of NATO tries to make us believe that there has never been a conflict between Ukrainian citizens around the Maidan in Ukraine, but that everything is only an invention of Russia. In my opinion and based on the events I have observed on the ground since 2014, it is just as true that Russia invaded and bombed in a criminal way as the fact that the Maidan was a nationalist coup, while on the other side of the trenches there were fighters and families from Ukraine who are set against Kiev. I know it’s extremely unpopular to say that today, but I’m a journalist and not a PR man.”(https://www.telepolis.de/features/Wie-die-Taz-einen-Artikel-eines-Ukraine-Kriegsreporters-manipulierte-9186628.html)

‘Russia is fighting NATO forces in Ukraine’

After Russian propaganda promised to capture Kyiv in two days and then two weeks, Moscow is looking for excuses for the failure of its so-called “special operation.” The simplest excuse is that almost the entire world is fighting against Russia. However, in reality, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which use modern Western weapons provided by the allies, are confronting the Russian invaders. Only foreign volunteers who joined the Ukrainian Army are on the ground, not any official forces. By faking the presence of French troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin creates a pretext for itself to resort to threats.

“Together with a representative of the arms producer Diehl (anti-aircraft system IRIS-T), Habeck had announced during his visit to Kiev that Ukraine had to win the NATO war against Russia.”(https://apolut.net/zwerge-erklaeren-russland-den-krieg/)

“But at the same time, it legitimizes the regime as a partner of Germany and supports those tendencies in the Federal Republic that would like to participate in a NATO war.”(https://apolut.net/ukraine-soldaten-als-deutsche/)

“The expansion of NATO activities near the Russian borders makes neutrality even more unclear and increases the immediate risk of direct confrontation.”(https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/wir-befinden-uns-bereits-im-dritten-weltkrieg/)

"Not only French mercenaries are said to have already fallen on the front. President Macron is preparing an invasion of French ground troops into Ukraine. A tremendous escalation that can affect the entire continent.”(https://www.compact-online.de/macron-bereitet-invasion-in-der-ukraine-vor/)

“RT DE reports: We believe that NATO is openly involved in the violent confrontation in Ukraine with Russia” (https://www.extremnews.com/nachrichten/weltgeschehen/8747193012f2963)

“France sends foreign Legionnaires to Ukraine.” (https://www.freiewelt.net/nachricht/frankreich-schickt-fremdenlegionaere-in-die-ukraine-10096541/)

“France has sent the first combat troops to the Ukrainian front.” (https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/frankreich-hat-erste-kampftruppen-an-die-ukrainische-front-geschickt/)

“Extraining Ukrainian students for the war and NATO soldiers in Ukraine.” (https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/ukrainische-schueler-fuer-den-krieg-ausbilden-und-nato-soldaten-in-der-ukraine-die-ereignisse-des-wochenendes/)

“When I asked him to explain whether he wanted to indicate that Russia is fighting more humanely in Ukraine than the USA in Iraq, Chomsky replied: “I do not suggest it, it is obvious.”” (https://www.telepolis.de/features/Noam-Chomsky-Russlands-Krieg-in-Ukraine-humaner-als-US-Invasion-in-Irak-8983892.html)

'Nuclear threats and nuclear blackmail’

When the Russian Federation realizes that the democratic, civilized world supports Ukraine and its adherence to international law, the last argument is the threat of nuclear weapons. Russian officials speak out, and pro-Russian media instill fear in Europe.

“The Russian military will take countermeasures when the US nuclear weapons are transferred to Poland, explained the spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov.” (https://de.sott.net/article/36005-US-Atomwaffen-in-Polen-Moskau-stellt-Gegenmanahmen-in-Aussicht)

“In response to French war threats, Kremlin chief Putin has ordered the use of tactical nuclear weapons to be practiced.” (https://lostineu.eu/putin-ordnet-manoever-mit-atomwaffen-an-eiszeit-mit-deutschland/)

“Russia speaks, among other things, of the danger of a “direct military clash between nuclear powers” and cites the recent provocative statements of Western politicians as the reason for a maneuver by the Russian tactical nuclear forces.”(https://anti-spiegel.ru/2024/russland-warnt-vor-direkter-militaerischer-konfrontation-mit-der-nato/)

“Medvedev: This will be a global disaster – Biden and Macron need war before the European elections on the 9th.” (https://www.pravda-tv.com/2024/05/medwedew-das-wird-eine-globale-katastrophe-biden-und-macron-brauchen-krieg-vor-den-europawahlen-am-9-juni-videos/)

“Nuclear war is possible. World peace depends on the tact of the United States, which is being blackmailed by the Ukrainian “integral nationalists” and the Israeli “revisionist Zionists”.” (https://www.pravda-tv.com/2024/05/ist-die-moeglichkeit-eines-weltkrieges-real/)

'Supporting Ukraine makes no sense’

Pro-Russian media convinces us that we should stop supporting Ukraine and abandon sanctions against Russia as a goal of all narratives. This is the main goal of the Putin regime: to make Ukraine defenseless against the offensive of the Russian invading forces.

“Cheap energy from Russia would be needed to mitigate the economic crisis. This realization now needs “supervised excuses.””(https://overton-magazin.de/hintergrund/politik/vom-albtraum-der-faeser-demokratie/)

“If Germany continues to present itself as a spearhead against Russia, we are threatened with demise. The only thing that can save us is neutrality.”(https://www.compact-online.de/scholz-neues-milliarden-paket-fuer-ukraine/)

“Without a strategy to end the war, the new US aid package will only bring us back to our starting point in a few months.”(https://overton-magazin.de/hintergrund/politik/vorsicht-vor-russischem-gas/)

“Der Spiegel has published an article with the headline “Expensive energy, inflation, trade conflicts – Russia’s war of aggression costs Germany 160 billion euros”, which is once again pure propaganda, because Der Spiegel blames Russia for the policy of the federal government.” (https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/die-anti-russische-politik-kosten-die-deutschen-jaehrlich-2-600-euro-pro-kopf/)

“However, Spiegel readers do not learn that 80 percent of “Ukraine aid” does not go to Ukraine at all, but directly to the US arms industry.” (https://aktuelle-nachrichten.app/die-us-ukraine-hilfe-bleibt-in-wirklichkeit-zu-80-prozent-in-den-usa/)

“Germany is costing its suicidal Russia policy a lot. Citizens are expected to explode electricity and gasoline because the traffic light government wants to get away from Russian energy supplies.”(https://zuerst.de/2022/06/17/kostspieliger-oel-umweg-ueber-indien-warum-billig-wenn-es-auch-teuer-geht/)

“Otto Schily warns of war mood and Ukraine hype: “We have to get along with the Russians”” (https://zuerst.de/2022/07/24/otto-schily-warnt-vor-kriegsstimmung-und-ukraine-hype-wir-muessen-mit-den-russen-klarkommen/)

“Ukraine war costs the German economy 200 billion euros.” (https://zuerst.de/2022/09/20/chef-des-instituts-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-ukraine-krieg-kostet-die-deutsche-wirtschaft-200-milliarden-euro/)

“The majority of Europeans want peace, even at the expense of Ukraine.” (https://zeitpunkt.ch/index.php/die-mehrheit-der-europaeer-will-frieden-selbst-auf-kosten-der-ukraine)

“How the USA cracked Europe with the Ukraine war and China’s rise. Europe suffers and joins in. Germany is the main loser of the US collision with Russia and China. Western Europe, especially Germany, is the big loser. Cheap Russian energy has been replaced by expensive ones from the USA. This has undermined the competitiveness of the German manufacturing industry and contributed to even higher European inflation. Europe has also lost Russia’s huge market, where it sold industrial goods. In addition, it has lost the wasteful expenses of the Russian elite. Threat from Russia a mirage. Above all, however, the assertion of a Russian threat to Europe is not valid. This weakness indeed speaks for the legitimacy of the Russian need for a demilitarized Ukraine as a protective buffer.” (https://www.telepolis.de/features/Wie-die-USA-mit-Ukraine-Krieg-und-Chinas-Aufstieg-Europa-knackten-9631903.html)

We have prepared a table with links between all the sites that spread pro-Russian narratives or claims that benefit Moscow. These include Russian state media, news websites supporting far-right political forces, and some other sites. Using web analytics tools, we mapped all the links from each site to all the citations between the sites on the list, which you can see filtered in the table below. [This table only visible on tbe website.]

It is clear that Russia is waging a war of propaganda and disinformation against Europe, whereas it is waging a real war against Ukraine, seizing its territories. An analysis of key Kremlin media narratives in different languages reveals that their campaign’s main goal is to force the West to stop supporting Ukraine and make concessions to Putin, probably by giving him the occupied territories and thus recognizing the redrawing of borders in Europe by military means.

News websites that tend to support pro-Russian, Euroskeptic, and anti-American views, as well as those close to the positions of right-wing radical parties, often pick up such narratives. Consciously or unconsciously, such web resources play into the hands of the Kremlin’s agenda. Such news reports are becoming a tool for spreading Russian and pro-Russian influence in Europe.

According to the European consumer protection group BEUC, the Chinese online retailer Temu "fails to provide sufficient traceability of the traders that sell on its platform" and thereby fail "to ensure that the products sold to EU consumers conform to EU law", BEUC said in a release.

"Temu is using manipulative practices such as dark patterns to get consumers, for example, to spend more than they might originally want to, or to complicate the process of closing down their account", BEUC adds, and it fails to "provide transparency about how it recommends products to consumers".

As a result, BEUC filed a complaint with the European Commission, while several of BEUC’s national members filed the same complaint with their competent national authorities, namely Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, and Luxembourg.

[Edit typo.]

Archived link

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s attritional fighting has bombarded Ukrainian schools, hospitals and other vital civilian infrastructure in an attempt to make life unsustainable for remaining civilians.

But Russia has waged an aggressive campaign online as well as off, seeking to exploit and exacerbate divisions and tensions created by the war in Ukraine. While the strategies used are not new, the full-scale invasion saw an intensification of efforts to spread fear, muddy the waters, sow division, and ultimately, undermine support for Ukraine.

More than two years on, as more than two billion people across 50 countries head to polling stations in 2024, democracies around the globe are increasingly vulnerable to Russian influence attempts to polarise public opinion, discredit governments, and cast doubt on democracy itself.

**The information laundering process **

While we’ve heard plenty about the Kremlin’s narratives and disinformation campaigns – and the bot networks and troll farms behind them – we’ve heard less about the specific strategies that are making dis– and misinformation increasingly difficult to detect.

Key to this process is information laundering. Akin to money laundering, information laundering is when propaganda is spread through layers of media to conceal and distance it from its Kremlin origins. Actors use a range of techniques to build credibility and embed laundered information within public discourse, allowing falsehoods at the fringes of the media environment to go global and shape mainstream narratives.

One of the aims is to subtly manipulate information in a way that makes inaccuracies difficult to detect or debunk. In simple terms, clean and dirty information – or fact and fiction – are washed together until the two become indistinguishable, explains Belén Carrasco Rodríguez, director of CIR’s Eyes on Russia project.

“Information laundering is a multi-layered influence process involving the combination and progressive application of a set of influence techniques that seek to distort an event, a claim, or a fact,” explains Rodríguez.

“Instead of just disinformation, this involves a more complex process where facts are mixed up, decontextualised, misappropriated or misconstrued. Once a fact is recycled through a network of accounts or layers of media, it becomes completely distorted, and the original source is obscured."

Laundering information involves the gradual application of techniques such as disinformation, misappropriation, click-bait headlines, and the ‘Woozle effect’ – when fabricated or misleading citations are used repeatedly in laundered news items in an attempt to provide ‘evidence’ of their integrity.

The information is then integrated into and spread around the information ecosystem through processes such as smurfing – a term borrowed from money laundering – where an actor sets up multiple accounts or websites to disseminate the information. There’s also what disinformation analysts call ‘Potemkin villages’, a network of accounts or platforms that share and endorse each other’s content, serving to amplify and propagate material.

The goal of such dissemination techniques is to boost visibility while building credibility – based on the premise that audiences tend to trust information more if it’s widely reported by different actors or organisations.

An international operation

CIR has seen numerous examples of information laundering in different languages and online environments since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, our investigators worked alongside the BBC’s disinformation team to investigate Yala News – a UK-registered, Syrian-linked media company that was found to be spreading Russian state disinformation to millions in the Arabic-speaking world.

The topics and rhythm of Yala’s social media posts revealed traits of information laundering, with many of the posts identical to those seen on Russian state media just a few hours earlier.

Some videos – including one that claims President Zelensky was drunk and 'lost his mind’ – generated over a million views. According to Rodríguez, such content “hits the right audiences”, allowing outlets such as Yala to not only disseminate pro-Russian, anti-western messages but to drive their readership at the same time.

In another case, in February 2023, CIR saw a fake UK government letter circulated online and addressed to UK sponsors of Ukrainian refugees. The letter asked for the personal details of Ukrainian men living in the households, information that had allegedly been demanded by the Ukrainian Embassy in London for reasons unspecified.

It was an operation that Rodríguez describes as hybrid, combining a forgery with an information laundering operation that was designed to stoke fear among the Ukrainian refugee community while portraying the Ukrainian armed forces as desperate and running out of manpower – and prepared to go to cruel lengths to obtain recruits.

Such narratives were embedded into social media groups in countries supporting the Ukrainian war effort, like Lithuania and Latvia, with posts suggesting authorities were collecting information on Ukrainian men so they could be deported for conscription.

“They used that forgery as an initial entry point to a further influence campaign involving information laundering,” explains Rodríguez, adding that the letter was swiftly shared online alongside stories from individuals who had supposedly received it, or knew someone who had. These narratives were an attempt to add legitimacy to the claims, she says.

“This is how laundering works – online and offline networks mobilise to spread a piece of disinformation, in this case, a forgery.”

Sowing division, casting doubt

Like large-scale money laundering operations, it is the transfer of narratives into other countries’ political environments that helps to strengthen their credibility while serving the purpose of the launderer – making the strategy especially dangerous in the so-called year of elections.

Rodríguez says what is particularly concerning is Russia’s ability to embed its influence networks in different communities and launder information by “speaking the domestic language and understanding the domestic grievances.”

Recent CIR analysis shared with Bloomberg revealed how X (formerly Twitter) accounts being used to promote Russian interests in South Africa are attempting to rally support for a new party backed by former President Jacob Zuma. Investigators identified several accounts that praised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and drew parallels between Zuma’s leadership and Putin’s. One such account has around 170,000 followers and regularly interacts with other users to amplify its reach – at times generating over 1 million impressions per post.

Ahead of elections in the U.S. and Europe, military aid to Ukraine has been a key topic for debate, and American officials have expressed concern that Russia will increase support for candidates opposing Ukrainian aid.

Recent reporting by the New York Times details Russia’s intensified efforts to amplify arguments for isolationism, with the ultimate aim of derailing military funding for Ukraine. While the initial arguments against additional aid may be organic, it is the amplification that is being “engineered” by Russia through the replication and distortion of legitimate news sites – a clear example of the information laundering described by Rodríguez.

Another key Russian tactic to destabilise support for Ukraine is through attacks designed to discredit and undermine the country’s political figures. The Washington Post recently uncovered a Kremlin disinformation campaign designed to push the theme that Zelensky “is hysterical and weak”, and to “strengthen the conflict” between Zelensky and Zaluzhny – the top military commander he dismissed in early February.

One senior European security official commenting on the campaign told The Washington Post: “Russia survived and they are preparing a new campaign which consists of three main directions: first, pressure on the front line; second, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure; and thirdly, this destabilization campaign.”

Fragmented societies and social media bubbles

But as democracies around the world prepare to open their polling booths, U.S. officials have also warned that Russia may be attempting to move beyond targeting individuals, instead sowing seeds of doubt over the future of democracy itself.

A U.S. review of elections between 2020 and 2022 identified 11 contests in nine countries where Russia attempted to undermine confidence in election outcomes. More subtle campaigns – which attempted to cast doubt and amplify domestic questions about the reliability of elections – were identified in a further 17 democracies.

While content moderation by Silicon Valley companies has been strengthened in the wake of the 2016 U.S. elections, research has repeatedly raised the issue of comparatively inconsistent and weak moderation of non-English language content, leaving hundreds of millions of voters particularly vulnerable to campaigns and strategies that Russia has expertly refined.

Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen previously warned that 87% of Facebook’s spending on combating misinformation was spent on English content, despite only 9% of users being English speakers – a disturbing finding for non-English speaking voters as they head to the polls. Meanwhile, after Elon Musk’s controversial takeover of X, disinformation and hate speech reportedly surged.

Research indicates that public trust in government, the media and democracy is waning, while conspiracy theories have flourished in recent years, particularly in the wake of the pandemic, a trend noted by Rodríguez:

“Societies are suffering a post-covid effect, we’re still extremely divided, and audiences are being held in social media bubbles. It’s very easy to disseminate false narratives and amplify them online, shaping cognitive processes and impacting public perceptions.”

Coupled with weak or understaffed content moderation from social media companies, this fragmentation provides fertile ground for influence operations to thrive, Rodríguez warns.

“The recent changes in social media platforms like Twitter favour this trend. It is a very volatile environment in an electoral year.”

Archived link

During the two-plus years of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has imported at least 169 Austrian-made Steyr Mannlicher rifles and pistols. These weapons are actively being used by the Russian military in the war. The Insider has discovered that 11 sniper rifles were delivered to Russian companies as recently as February 2024.

Russian snipers’ Austrian rifles

Since February 2024, The Insider has published several investigations into the smuggling of European and U.S.-manufactured small arms into Russia. Russian importers have received more than 15,000 units of weapons over the course of their country’s full-scale invasion. The firearms range from pistols and hunting rifles to sniper rifles. And while imported pistols and carbines are not so common at the front lines, Austrian Steyr Mannlicher rifles remain popular with snipers in both the Russian army and security forces.

Steyr Mannlicher rifles are used by snipers of the Federal Protective Service (FSO), which is charged with guarding Vladimir Putin's security. They are also used by Russian mercenaries in Syria and Libya, and Russian naval infantry units fighting in Ukraine. The Insider was able to confirm, through public records, that Austrian rifles are used by snipers in at least five different brigades in official Russian army units:

• 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet
• 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade, which stormed Hostomel Airport near Kyiv in February 2022
• 14th Separate Special Forces Brigade of the GRU Spetsnaz
• 3rd Guards Separate Brigade of the GRU Spetsnaz -37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade

The Austrian rifles are also used by:

• The Wagner Group's “Derivation” Company in Ukraine
• Wagner Group snipers in Libya and Syria
• The Federal Protective Service (FSO), which deploys snipers on the walls of the Kremlin

The most recent publication about the use of Steyr Mannlicher SSG rifles by Russian forces found by The Insider in open sources is dated April 30, 2024. Steyr Mannlicher’s Russian affiliates

In June 2014, in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the European Union imposed export restrictions on arms deliveries. At the time, discussions were underway about the possibility of Steyr Mannlicher producing weapons in Russia under an Austrian license. This potential project was closed, but the supply of finished rifles did not stop. A company affiliated with the Austrian factory served as the Russian recipient of Steyr Mannlicher rifles.

The largest importer of these rifles is Arsenal Weapons Salon LLC (ООО Оружейный Салон «Арсенал»). According to customs data, this company received Steyr Mannlicher rifles directly from the manufacturer until 2018 and imported 19,838 kg of products while cooperation persisted. The company is owned by three entrepreneurs: Alexander Seleznev and Vladimir Cherevichny each own 30% of the company's capital, while Dmitry Startsev owns 40%. The latter was the CEO and co-owner of another Russian company, Steyr Mannlicher LLC (ООО «Штрайр Маннлихер»). The company was established in September 2010, liquidated in March 2014 and had an insignificant turnover. It should be noted that the second co-founder of this company, which owned 75% of the share capital, was Steyr Mannlicher Holding GmbH (Austria).

Although the formal ties between Steyr Mannlicher and Startsev were severed, in February 2024, Arsenal Weapons Salon LLC, owned by the Russian businessman, received a new batch of 11 Steyr Mannlicher rifles in the .338 Lapua Magnum caliber. As of May 14, Arsenal's website indicated the availability of more than 20 different Mannlicher models, ranging from hunting rifles to sniper rifles.

Two other companies that import weapons from the Austrian manufacturer are Hunter-Ru LLC (ООО «Хантер-Ру») and Test-Oruzhie LLC (ООО «Тест-Оружие»). The owner of Hunter-Ru is entrepreneur Vladimir Shchigorets. In March 2022, the company imported 20 Steyr Mannlicher SSG 08 rifles in .338 LM caliber. According to customs records, the logistics intermediary was the Cyprus-based Philippos Constantinieds Trading Co Ltd, which UK authorities suspect of supplying arms to North Korea. Test-Oruzhie is linked to Beretta Holding's Russian partner, arms baron Mikhail Khubutia. In July 2023, the firm delivered 65 Steyr A2 MF pistols in the 9mm caliber to Russia.

Steyr Mannlicher’s business history in Russia

The first evidence of the use of Austrian weapons by the Russian military dates back to 2011. At that time, Russia’s Airborne Forces reconnaissance units received close to two dozen Mannlicher rifles.

The Russian army’s purchase of modern sniper rifles was long overdue. The most widely used sniper rifle in service with the Ministry of Defense, the SVD, was developed in 1957-1963. Its effective range is 600-700 meters, which is less than half that of modern .338 Lapua Magnum (1,750 meters) and .375 CheyTac rifles (2,286 meters).

Russian attempts to create a large caliber sniper rifle capable of operating at ranges beyond the reach of normal calibers led to the development of the ASVK (Army Large Caliber Sniper Rifle) in 2004. The project was not a success. Russia managed to create a heavy weapon — at 12.5 kg, the ASVK weighs more than twice as much as its European counterparts — but not an accurate one.

Russian Defense Ministry officers quoted on the social network “gunsforum” by former special forces and military blogger Alexander Arutyunov, known as Razvedos, are critical of the rifle's long-range accuracy, noting that “at 1,000 meters you can only hit a barn.”

Given their experience with the ASVK, Russian snipers were more than satisfied with the accuracy and compactness of the Austrian rifles, and their manufacturer was attracted by the opportunity to sell the weapon to one of the largest armies in Europe. Two years after the first deliveries were made, the head of Rostec State Corporation Sergey Chemezov and the chairman of the Russian-Austrian Business Council Vladimir Artyakov discussed the “development of military-technical cooperation” with the president of the Austrian Federal Chamber of Economy Christoph Leitl. In September 2013, Rostec and Steyr Mannlicher signed an agreement to produce small arms in Izhevsk. But due to the annexation of Crimea, this project was never realized. Still, deliveries of finished rifles did not stop — neither during the period of hybrid war in eastern Ukraine from 2014-2022 nor after the start of the full-scale invasion.

Lack of sanctions control

Since November 2023, it has been known that large-scale shipments of European small arms including Austrian Steyr Mannlicher and Glock rifles were still making their way to Russia. An investigation on this topic by the German publication Correctiv was covered by dozens of other publications. A series of articles on the smuggling of European weapons followed, naming specific participants in the supply chain. Finland's Helsingin Sanomat, Czechia’s Investigace, Italy's IrpiMedia, and The Insider all wrote about the issue.

So far, European authorities have reacted to these publications only once: in Germany, the public prosecutor's office in Ravensburg opened a preliminary investigation against the German rifle manufacturer Blaser. Such inaction raises serious questions. While it can be difficult to find intermediaries involved in the supply of microprocessors and semiconductors to Russia, there is no such problem in the case of weapons: the European Union's regulatory authorities have reliable information on the serial numbers of the barrels of most rifles and pistols that have ended up in Russia since February 2024.

Following the publication of The Insider's previous investigations into the smuggling of European small arms into Russia, Russia’s Federal Accreditation Service (Rosakkreditatsia) stopped publishing new certificates and declarations of conformity for a number of product groups.

TLDR: RBI, the largest Western bank in Russia, has been warned by the U.S. Treasury about financial system access in a letter voicing concerns over its Russian business. Concerns remain even though RBI dropped plans to sell its Russia-business to sanctioned billionaire Deripaska. Austrian finance ministry says it assumes RBI respects sanctions.

Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International was warned by the U.S. Treasury in writing that its access to the U.S. financial system could be curbed because of its Russia dealings, according to a person who has seen the correspondence.

On May 6, Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo sent a letter to RBI, expressing concern about RBI's presence in Russia as well as a $1.5 billion deal with a sanctioned Russian tycoon that the bank has since scrapped, according to the person, who requested anonymity because the matter is private.

While the deal linked to Oleg Deripaska was ditched by Raiffeisen days after the letter arrived, the source said that the U.S. Treasury's concerns over the Austrian bank's business in Russia remain.

The warning is the strongest yet to the biggest Western bank in Russia and follows months of pressure from Washington, which has been looking into RBI's business in the nation for more than a year.

It underscores the deep frustration in Washington with the lender despite its recent decision to abandon a deal that had exacerbated those tensions.

While many Western governments and corporations have radically reduced ties to Moscow since it invaded Ukraine over two years ago, Austria remains linked with Russia through critical gas pipelines, with Vienna still serving as a hub for cash from Russia and its ex-Soviet neighbours.

Reuters reported in March about strong U.S. opposition to the Deripaska transaction, which Raiffeisen had billed as a means of unlocking some of its funds stranded in Russia.

Raiffeisen shares dropped 3% as trading opened, making it the top loser among European banks.

A spokesperson for Raiffeisen said that it had walked away from the deal and had not entered into any such transactions.

The spokesperson said RBI had "significantly reduced" activities in Russia and taken broad measures to mitigate the risks from sanctions.

"RBI will continue to work towards the de-consolidation of its Russian subsidiary," the spokesperson told Reuters.

In the letter, Adeyemo, the U.S. Treasury's second-highest ranking official, said Raiffeisen's extending activities would contradict assurances RBI had given to the Treasury that they were trying to wind down in Russia, according to the source.

Adeyemo warned that RBI's actions increased the risk of Treasury taking action to restrict its access to the U.S. financial system given concerns that its behaviour put U.S. national security at risk.

"The U.S. is losing patience. Enough is enough," said Richard Portes, a professor of economics at London Business School who has written about sanctions. He said there had been "too much" Russian money flowing through Raifeissen and other Western banks, frustrating the Americans. "That (money) has clearly blunted the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions," he added, "This is a big signal."

PILING PRESSURE

The United States is the world's most powerful regulator chiefly because it can sever a bank's access to the dollar, a cornerstone of international finance. Losing access to the U.S. currency would be likely to plunge any bank into a crisis.

In the letter, Adeyemo also made reference to U.S. President Joe Biden's Executive Order authorizing U.S. secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions that conduct significant transactions involving Russia's military-industrial base.

The warning piles more pressure on Raiffeisen, a critical financial bridge for Russian individuals and companies to the West, giving them access to euros and dollars. RBI had vowed to spin off its Russian business, which provides a payment lifeline to hundreds of companies there, after coming under pressure from international regulators. But two years into war, little has changed.

A spokesperson for Austria's finance ministry noted the bank's pledge to de-consolidate its business in Russia and said that it assumed all sanctions were being respected.

Russian authorities had made it clear to RBI, which has around 2,600 corporate customers, 4 million local account holders and 10,000 staff, that they wish it to stay because it enables international payments, one source has told Reuters.

Although Italy's UniCredit also has a business in Russia and is similarly reluctant to leave, RBI is far larger and has become a test of western resolve to end ties with Russia.

Slovakia’s populist prime minister, Robert Fico, has reportedly been injured in a shooting and taken to hospital.

Then incident occurred after a Slovak government meeting at a location outside Bratislava, news agency TASR reported on Wednesday, without giving further details.

Germany's travel ban against British-Palestinian doctor Ghassan Abu Sitta has been overturned, according to a leading legal advocacy group in the UK.

On 12 April, Abu Sitta was detained at an airport in Germany and was refused entry into the country. He was travelling there to attend a conference on Palestine that he had received an invitation for.

He was then slapped with a Schengen-wide travel ban for one year, which barred him from travelling to 29 countries across Europe.

"This decision is a significant turning point in challenging the hostile environment that Palestinian human rights advocates like Professor Ghassan have faced in recent months," Gorski, Abu Sitta's lawyer, said in a statement.

"This decision means that Ghassan’s freedom of expression and freedom of movement are no longer under threat, and he can speak out about what he witnessed in Gaza. This victory cannot be overstated.”

In case of paywall: https://archive.ph/C3um4

In case of paywall: https://archive.ph/922g7

Hungarian Member of Parliament Tompos Marton, who is the vice president of the opposition Momentum Party, made the remarks in an interview with the Central News Agency on Sunday.

He draped a Republic of China flag across his shoulders to protest Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the capital city, Budapest, on Thursday last week, and openly voiced support for Taiwan on social media.

He said in the interview that he wanted to remind the world that there were alternatives to China, and that “Taiwan has proven to be a very significant and very reliable partner.”

He said that Taiwan has invested in central and eastern European countries, including a Giant bicycle factory in Hungary.

Marton said he appreciated learning about Taiwan and believes the two nations can learn a lot from each other.

However, in the past decade Hungary has focused on building stronger ties with China.

During Xi’s visit, China and Hungary signed 18 agreements, with Hungary becoming China’s sixth “all-weather partner” along with Ethiopia, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Venezuela and Pakistan, Marton said.

As a member of the EU and NATO, Hungary’s pursuit of relations with China does not represent “the elite club” that his country belongs to, he said.

Marton also said he was concerned about the Hungarian government’s willingness to give up its sovereignty when it comes to China and Russia.

He said it was “absurd” that when Xi visited on Europe Day, there was no outward celebration of the continent or the EU.

Instead, everywhere was covered in Chinese flags, he said.

During the visit, his colleagues were approached by Chinese “volunteers” asking about the EU flags they were waving, while Hungarian police looked on, Marton said.

This prompted security concerns, particularly given China had offered to back Hungary in national security matters in February.

There had been reports of Chinese police, as well as Chinese People’s Liberation Army members, potentially being sent to the country, Marton said.

He said that Taiwan should try to heighten its visibility in Hungary by showing the contributions it makes to the central European country, such as the production of electronic devices, to garner more support among Hungarians.

Taiwanese firms are known for treating their workers much better than their Chinese counterparts in Europe, he said.

Being a vocal advocate for Taiwan has attracted the attention of the Chinese embassy, which frequently posts about him on Facebook, such as by saying he is “challenging the good relationship between the two countries and spreading lies,” he said, adding that he was not bothered by it.

“I’m happy to go to Taiwan if I can’t go to China,” he said, adding that he has been invited to visit Taiwan and hopes the visit can take place this year.

The EU’s climate agenda is in trouble. The Green Deal, which aims to slash the bloc’s carbon emissions by 55% by 2030, had started off promisingly after several major pieces of legislation were adopted, including its ban on the sale of new combustion-powered vehicles from 2035 and new carbon border tax.

Increasingly, however, Europeans are rebelling against green restrictions of which they have difficulty seeing the advantages, write Carine Sebi, associate professor at Grenoble École de Management (GEM), and Patrick Criqui, Director and energy economist at the Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA).

Another less reported upon but equally important threat to the bloc’s ecological and energy transition comes from the alarming number of Chinese and US companies moving into the EU power sector.

In our book, Energy: How to Recover Our European Ambition (published in French), we shed light on this overlooked issue ahead of European elections that will be critical for the EU’s energy strategy, and call on the bloc to carefully weigh up cooperation and competition with sovereignty.

China eyes Europe’s energy sector

While there currently isn’t any quantitative data on China’s share in the European energy market, we do know the country detains 80% of the global clean-technology manufacturing capacity in 11 segments, from solar wafers to many lithium-ion battery components.

Taking advantage of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, Chinese investors first stepped in to acquire substantial stakes in what have long been regarded as “sovereign” sectors, such as power transmission and distribution grids, in the early 2010s. Key among those was the world’s largest utility company, the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), commonly known as the State Grid – the world’s fourth-biggest company overall by revenue, behind Walmart, Saudi Aramco and Amazon as of March. Also increasingly present is Three Gorges Corp, responsible for the world’s largest hydroelectric power complex.

For instance, in Portugal, Three Gorges Corp. won the bidding for the Portuguese government’s 21% stake in EDP-Energias de Portugal SA in 2010. Meanwhile, in Italy, SGCC expanded its presence by collaborating with the Italian government in 2014, acquiring a 35% share in the CDP Reti fund, thereby attaining a blocking minority at the local gas network operator, SNAM, and electricity transmission network operator, Terna. Similarly, in Greece the State Grid made substantial inroads by acquiring a 24% stake in the national electricity transmission network operator from the Greek government in 2016.

While Portugal, Italy, and Greece were primary targets, Chinese investors have also acquired grids in Luxembourg. Last but not least, let’s not forget China’s green-tech industry has flooded Europe with cheap solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs).

US inroads in the EU energy market

The stakes are all the higher because China is not the only country with ambitions in the EU: The United States is also seeking to benefit from the bloc’s poorly thought-out energy strategy.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has not weakened the United States’ energy dominance in the world, and more specifically in the EU. Indeed, while Russian gas was expected to act as a bridge fuel in the energy transition, particularly for Germany, the EU was quick to adopt sanctions against its long-term trade partner that minimised its dependence. Partly filling the vacant space left by Moscow, the United States has become the leading producer and exporter of LNG to Europe. This development favours US trade while domestic energy costs are kept low, further widening the price gap, with Europe experiencing an energy inflation and undermining its relative competitiveness and attractiveness to energy-intensive industry.

Beyond these energy-supply issues, EU member states are struggling to carve out a common vision, highlighting the challenges of sovereignty and strategic autonomy. European companies, particularly in France, have endeavoured to develop fourth-generation small modular nuclear reactors (SMR), with an attempt to create a European nuclear alliance made in November 2023. But at the same moment, countries such as Italy, Belgium, and Romania have partnered with the American Westinghouse Electric Company to develop lead-cooled fast reactors.

Here again, the coordination gap plays to the advantage of American influence in Europe, as confirmed by John Kerry in September 2023. As part of the international consortium “Clean Fuel from SMR”, led by American companies, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland were selected to participate and will receive support for coal-to-SMR feasibility studies. These EU countries are turning to the Americans to build new nuclear power plants, mainly because of their funding and technical expertise, while the EU continues to block all support for nuclear projects developed on its soil.

Cracks in the EU’s net-zero goals

The scale of these foreign investments in renewable energies, new nuclear facilities and grid development could come to bear heavily onto the bloc’s strategic independence at a time when it’s looking to decarbonise.

These investments raise concerns over continental energy security, given the still fragmented nature of Europe’s energy landscape:

• in the short run, supply issues due to the energy crisis urgently push the EU to turn to other foreign partners (other than Russia) and only shift our energy dependence problem;

• in the longer term, faced with Chinese dumping and US protectionism, Europe will have to protect domestic energy manufacturers or grid operators after having long neglected them.

The main challenge for Europe is ending one dependency without falling into another. To replace imports of fossil fuels (coal, gas, and oil), harmful to the climate, the EU member states must accelerate and coordinate the development of their “green” technologies.

Toward green sovereignty

These risks demand that the bloc not only pays more attention to non-EU operators, but take greater responsibility over its own energy system. How can it do this, all while pursuing the vision of the “green, secure and affordable energy supply” set out in its Green Deal?

For starters, we recommend EU member states work harder on building truly European energy grids. As we move toward decarbonisation, we can expect an array of renewable energies to increasingly power our electricity system. These arrangements will require extensive and interconnected networks on a European scale, which must be consolidated and developed by the EU member states themselves.

A second emergency is green energy financing. In November, the European Climate Neutrality Observatory warned a lack of EU-level public investment in green energy and other advances could lead the bloc to fail to meet its net-zero goals. Rather than take heed of the warning, member states axed the fund earmarked for renewables and clean tech – the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) – to 1.5bn in February. Our book calls for a radical change of strategy, through the creation of a “European transition savings account” to attract private savings, on the one hand, and a “European sovereign fund” that receives proceeds from carbon-pricing revenues on the other.

Whether these actually come into being will depend on the upcoming European elections. Results leaning toward a higher European ambition could help us see in clean, affordable and secure solutions. At the other end of the spectrum, further veering to the nationalistic right could carry harmful effects for the bloc’s economic clout and, paradoxically, sovereignty.

Michel Derdevet, President of the organisation Confrontations Europe, coauthored this article.

The British police have charged three men with assisting Hong Kong’s foreign intelligence service.

The men were detained alongside several others during a series of raids across the United Kingdom last week, the police said on Monday. The operation is the latest in a spate of action against suspected Russian and Chinese spies across Europe.

They were set to appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court on Monday to face charges filed under the National Security Act, passed last year to introduce new measures against espionage threats from foreign states.

“While these offences are concerning, I want to reassure the public that we do not believe there to be any wider threat to them,” Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command, said in a statement.

The London police said 11 people had been detained earlier this month, most of them from Yorkshire, in northern England.

Those who were charged were Chi Leung Wai, 38, Matthew Trickett, 37, and Chung Biu Yuen, 63, all from southeast England.

Seven other men and one woman were not charged and were later released from custody.

Police said the investigation was ongoing, without providing any other details on the charges.

Spate of spying charges

The arrests come as concerns mount across Europe over intelligence operations linked to China and Russia.

The UK announced in late April the arrest of two people suspected of providing “prejudicial information” to Beijing.

The same day, the German police reported that they had charged three citizens with handing technologies with potential military purposes to Chinese intelligence, with whom they have been accused of working since at least June 2022.

The same month, Germany arrested an aide to a far-right member of the European Parliament on suspicion of spying for China.

The British police noted on Monday that the charges against the trio over their work for Hong Kong intelligence are not linked to an ongoing investigation involving Russia, which was also conducted under the National Security Act.

The British government said last Wednesday that it was expelling a Russian defence attache for spying, amid several measures targeting Moscow’s intelligence-gathering operations in the UK.

Home Secretary James Cleverly said the measures were aimed at the “reckless and dangerous activities of the Russian government across Europe”.

Two Chinese-owned solar panel manufacturers have withdrawn from a public procurement tender in Romania after the EU launched a foreign subsidies probe, Brussels said Monday.

Brussels is both seeking to ramp up Europe's renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously moving away from excessive reliance on cheaper Chinese wind and solar technology.

More broadly, the EU wants to defend European industry against growing threats from China and the United States, and has launched multiple probes into Chinese firms over state subsidies.

The European Commission started an investigation in April into two consortiums suspected of receiving subsidies that Brussels feared undercut rivals in Europe.

After the Chinese-owned firms withdrew their bid, the commission said it would "close its in-depth investigation".

The probe was launched under new rules that came into force last year and seek to prevent foreign subsidies from undermining fair competition in the EU.

"We are massively investing in the installation of solar panels to decrease our carbon emissions and energy bills -- but this should not come at the expense of our energy security, our industrial competitiveness and European jobs," the EU's internal market commissioner, Thierry Breton, said.

The new rules ensure "foreign companies which participate in the European economy do so by abiding to our rules on fair competition and transparency", he added.

But the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU slammed the rules "as a tool of economic coercion" which left the Chinese companies with "no commercially prudent options but to withdraw".

The CCCEU claimed the Chinese companies faced more scrutiny than other non-EU firms, and said the withdrawal "hampers" the EU's "green transformation efforts". Rising trade tensions

One of the two consortiums targeted in the probe includes the Enevo group in Romania and a German subsidiary of Chinese parent company Longi Green Energy Technology.

Longi -- the world's biggest solar panel manufacturer -- said it remained "fully committed to working with its partners in Europe" to ensure the continent "can meet its ambitious renewable energy and climate goals."

The second consortium was made up of two subsidiaries both fully controlled by Chinese state-owned firm, Shanghai Electric group.

They had applied to design, construct and operate a photovoltaic park in Romania, partly financed by EU funds.

The estimated value of the contract was around 375 million euros ($405 million).

Europe relies heavily on foreign solar panels. More than 97 percent of the panels in Europe are imported, mainly from China, according to Brussels.

Other EU probes have been opened into Chinese subsidies for electric cars and trains, and wind turbines as trade tensions escalate between the two sides.

A fight over solar panels is nothing new for the EU.

In 2013, the EU imposed anti-dumping duties after European manufacturers said Chinese panel imports were undercutting their firms, though they were scrapped five years later.

Onshoring the EV supply chain to Europe would cut the emissions of producing a battery by 37% compared to a China-controlled supply chain, according to new analysis by Transport & Environment (T&E). This carbon saving rises to over 60% when renewable electricity is used. Producing Europe’s demand for battery cells and components locally would save an estimated 133 Mt of CO2 between 2024 and 2030, equivalent to the total annual emissions of Czechia.

But over half of Europe's battery production plans are at risk without stronger government action, the researchers say.

Less than half (47%) of the lithium-ion battery production planned for Europe up to 2030 is secure, the report also finds. This is up from one-third a year ago following a raft of measures put in place to respond to the US Inflation Reduction Act. The remaining 53% of announced cell manufacturing capacity is still at medium or high risk of being delayed, scaled down or cancelled without stronger government action.

Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and emobility supply chains at T&E, said: “Batteries, and metals that go into them, are the new oil. European leaders will need laser sharp focus and joined-up thinking to reap their climate and industrial benefits. Strong sustainability requirements, such as the upcoming battery carbon footprint rules, can reward local clean manufacturing. Crucially, Europe needs better instruments under the European Investment Bank and EU Battery Fund to support gigafactory investments.”

France, Germany and Hungary have made the most progress in securing gigafactory capacity since T&E’s previous risk assessment last year. [1] In France, ACC started production in Pas-de-Calais last year while plants by Verkor in Dunkirk and Northvolt in Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, are going ahead thanks to generous government subsidies.

Finland, the UK, Norway and Spain have the most production capacity at medium or high risk due to question marks over projects by the Finnish Minerals Group, West Midlands Gigafactory, Freyr and InoBat. T&E called on lawmakers to help lock in investments by doubling down on EU electric car policies, enforcing strong battery sustainability requirements that reward local manufacturing, and beefing up EU-level funding.

Securing other parts of the battery value chain will be even more challenging given China’s dominance and the EU’s nascent expertise. The report finds Europe has the potential to manufacture 56% of its demand for cathodes – the battery’s most valuable components – by 2030, but only two plants have started commercial operations so far. By the end of this decade, the region could also fulfil all of its processed lithium needs and secure between 8% and 27% of battery minerals from recycling in Europe. But T&E said processing and recycling plants need EU and state support to scale quickly.

Julia Poliscanova said: “The battery race between China, Europe and the US is intensifying. While some battery investments that were at risk of being lured away by US subsidies have been saved since last year, close to half of planned production is still up for grabs. The EU needs to end any uncertainty over its engine phase-out and set corporate EV targets to assure gigafactory investors that they will have a guaranteed market for their product.”

In the villages surrounding the eastern Serbian city of Smederevo, trouble has brewed over the last eight years. Once a symbol of economic promise, the steel mill acquired by Chinese company HBIS has become synonymous with environmental degradation and health hazards for the local community.

Dubbed the “red village” due to the perpetual crimson hue that coats everything in sight, Radinac is a poignant example of the detrimental effects of industrial Pollution on local life. Concerns about rising cancer cases and the presence of toxic substances like arsenic, chromium, and lead in the dust hang heavily over the community. Residents of nearby villages, such as Radinac, speak of their daily struggles with heavy air pollution and the omnipresent red dust that blankets their homes and streets.

Dragana Milic shares the heartbreaking reality of her grandchildren refusing to venture outdoors, highlighting the profound impact of Pollution on the younger generation’s quality of life. She said, “They won’t play outside.”

The acquisition of the steel mill by HBIS in 2016, amidst high-profile visits from Chinese President Xi Jinping, was initially celebrated as a testament to growing economic ties between China and Serbia. However, the subsequent surge in Pollution levels has cast a shadow over this narrative of progress.

Locals attribute the worsening pollution to the influx of Chinese investment, pointing to throat irritations, persistent soot accumulation, and unpleasant odors as daily reminders of their deteriorating environment.

Activists like Nikola Krstic from NGO Tvrdjava raise alarming concerns about the spike in Pollution since HBIS took over the mill. Despite efforts to address the issue, including a detailed analysis of the dust emissions and legal action against the company, the community’s plight remains largely unresolved.

The Serbian Environmental Protection Agency’s repeated classification of Smederevo as one of the country’s most polluted cities. Data from the Smederevo Health Centre revealing a four-fold increase in cancer cases between 2011 and 2019 further amplifies concerns about the long-term health consequences of unchecked Pollution.

While HBIS has outlined plans to mitigate the environmental impact, skepticism prevails among residents like Milic, who have witnessed promises fall short in the past. The company’s proposed measures, such as constructing a wall around raw material storage and implementing new processing technologies, offer hope but are met with cautious optimism.

[Edit typo.]

Archived link.

As Chinese President Xi Jinping toured Europe this week to discuss Ukraine and trade, China remains Russia's leading source of sanctioned dual-use goods, fueling the ongoing war.

"Around 90% of the goods deemed high priority products by the Western countries... (was) supplied by China" as Chinese-made products or re-exported goods in 2023, a sharp rise from 30% in 2021, Nathaniel Sher, a senior research analyst at Carnegie China, told the Kyiv Independent.

China-based companies pour a range of items – from drones to microchips and machine parts – into Russia, including products made in China and those that bypass Western export controls via Chinese entities.

Beijing has thus far refused to commit direct lethal weapons to Russia's war, and both Kyiv and the EU sought to engage it in peace efforts, hoping to leverage its influence over Moscow.

Bringing China to the Ukraine-led Peace Summit planned in Switzerland for mid-June is among Kyiv's top priorities, a source in the president's office told the Kyiv Independent.

The flow of dual-use goods indicates that China is not as neutral in the war as it wishes to appear.

"More effort is needed to curtail the delivery of dual-use goods to Russia that find their way to the battlefield," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on May 6 after meeting Xi in Paris.

Washington warned its partners in April that the level of this support is only increasing, extending also to geospatial intelligence and missile propellants.

While the West's options are limited regarding China selling its own products, there are avenues of action when it comes to re-selling Western goods and bypassing sanctions.

A coordinated action by Western partners could help drive up the costs for Russia and China, curtailing this critical lifeline, experts say.

What is Russia buying from China?

In 2023, China was responsible for roughly 90% of Russia's imports of approximately 50 items included in the G7 "high-priority" sanctioned goods list, such as microelectronics, navigation and communication equipment, optics, or Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine tools.

China serves both as a producer of these items and as an intermediary for their re-export from other countries, helping to bypass sanctions.

The country's role as Moscow's lifeline for economic output and military production has risen sharply since the West imposed extensive trade restrictions on Russia.

While Chinese overall exports to the rest of the world have grown by 29% since 2021, exports to Russia have spiked by a whopping 121%, underscoring the role of their partnership.

When it comes to individual dual-use items, the sales of semi-conductors – vital for the manufacturing of communication systems, radars, missile guidance, or electronic warfare equipment – jumped from $200 million in 2021 to over $500 million in 2022, according to the Free Russia Foundation.

Several sectors of Russia's defense industry and military capabilities are boosted by Chinese trade.

"(Russia's) logistics machine is really important. So trucks, spare parts, forklift trucks, all those sorts of things that keep the war machine going," China can provide, said Edward Lucas, a senior advisor at the Center for the European Policy Analysis (CEPA), in a comment for the Kyiv Independent.

Other key components include drone parts and complete off-the-shelf drones, microchips, and other electronics, the expert added.

"When you look at what China is providing to Russia, it is less about (whole) systems, it is more about parts, specifically microelectronics, that China has been increasingly providing to Russia for the past few years… (which are then) integrated into weapon systems," Mathieu Boulègue, a senior fellow at CEPA, told the Kyiv Independent.

"The core of what China is providing Russia with right now are mostly spare parts, detached parts, microelectronics, components that are cannibalized by the Russian military industry."

Benjamin Hilgenstock, a senior economist at the KSE Institute focused on the sanctions regime against Russia, told the Kyiv Independent that we can see China playing three different roles when it comes to the dual-goods flow.

"So there are Chinese companies producing goods that Russia imports and needs for its military. The second role… is that there are foreign companies, including Western ones, that have production facilities in China," Hilgenstock said, adding: "These are not goods from Chinese producers, but they're made in China."

"And then the third role is Chinese entities as final sellers of these goods to Russia from Western companies."

Between January and October 2023, 41% of "battlefield goods" (the aforementioned ≈50 goods defined as "high priority" by the U.S., the EU, and other allies) supplied to Russia were produced by China-based firms, a report by the KSE Institute and the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group shows.

The percentage is almost the same for "critical components" (KSE's term for other dual-use goods that go beyond the definition set by the U.S. and other partners), making companies headquartered in China the leading source in both cases, followed by the U.S., Taiwan, and the EU.

Chinese tech giant Huawei was Russia's top provider of critical components for the first 10 months of 2023 ($530 million) and the second most significant source of battlefield goods ($286 million) after the American Intel. China's Lenovo and Hikvision also rank high in both indicators.

China's role as the global manufacturing leader comes into play as well. The KSE's research shows that 63.1% of battlefield goods and 58.7% of critical components sent to Russia during much of the last year were produced in China-based plants (including factories owned by foreign companies).

Similarly notable is the role of Chinese companies as final sellers. In terms of battlefield goods, 38% were sold to Russia from China and 30.9% from Hong Kong between January and October 2023. As for critical components, the percentages are 38.9% for China and 18.1% for Hong Kong.

The Chinese share in Russia's dual-use goods supply is not as high in the KSE Institute's report as the 90% figure presented by Carnegie Endowment, but the former examines the individual roles that China plays in this process, which do not always overlap. In the end, both organizations agree that China is Moscow's one source of these products.

Lucas stresses, however, that "it would be a mistake to say that China is the only lifeline of Russia's war machine."

Moscow showed dexterity in circumventing Western sanctions through other intermediaries, like the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. It has obtained wholesale battlefield goods from Iran and North Korea, and its own economy is in war mode, producing more artillery shells than the U.S. or the EU can currently provide to Ukraine.

"If you remove China's help completely, tomorrow, it would indeed impact certain segments of the (Russian) military industry… (but) unfortunately, Russia is fully able to continue waging war by itself without China's support," Boulègue said.

One curious aspect is that even though customs data show extensive Chinese supplies flowing to Russia, they represent a disproportionately small portion of foreign-made components found in Russian weapon systems on Ukrainian battlefields.

Chinese products amounted to a mere 4% of the 2,800 foreign parts found in Russian missiles, drones, and armored vehicles and documented by Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention. This pales in comparison to nearly three-quarters of the sum being U.S.-made parts.

Hilgenstock offers two possible explanations for this discrepancy.

"One hypothesis is that (Russia) hasn't been able to substitute the Western goods" with Chinese products, he said. This would give the West powerful leverage to curb the supplies by its own efforts, but it also indicates that the current export controls are not as effective as hoped.

"The second hypothesis is that Russia does not have to substitute the (Western) parts because it still has access to them," the expert suggested.

What are China's goals?

Unlike other Moscow's partners like Iran or North Korea, Beijing has staved off from supplying direct lethal assistance. This has allowed China to continue supporting Russia under the veil of plausible deniability.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has dismissed criticism against China by the West, saying its exports to Russia fall within the confines of "normal cooperation."

Despite its apparent affinity toward the Kremlin and hostility toward Washington, China's rhetoric has been constrained regarding Ukraine, calling instead for a mutually satisfactory peaceful resolution.

Looking beneath the veneer of pacifist proclamations, Beijing's role in assisting Russia's war machine is hard to deny.

Given the Chinese government's sway over the domestic business sector, it is difficult to imagine that the dual-use goods supplies are happening without its tacit approval.

According to Sher, "Given the size and scope of these transactions, it does seem like it's more than just Chinese companies looking to turn a profit... the Chinese government is likely aware of these transactions."

"If you change the optics a little bit, I would argue that China is providing lethal aid to Russia. It's not direct lethal aid, but military components and parts that are used to kill Ukrainians," Boulègue said.

"Of course, there is a big difference between providing a missile system and electronics that go into a radar used inside that missile. But still… I think we could argue that China is indeed providing a form of indirect lethal aid to Russia," he added.

Chinese companies can capitalize on Russia's growing demand, while Beijing is also likely interested in curtailing Western influence, and its partnership with Moscow is a key piece in this puzzle.

Yet, there are clear limits that Beijing has to respect as a global geopolitical player. While it wishes to support Russia against the West, it does not want to get its hands too dirty, tarnish its international reputation, and attract further costly sanctions from the EU or the U.S., experts say.

"(China) needs to put a critical distance between what Russia is doing in Ukraine and what it hopes to accomplish in the international arena because it brings too much attention, too much heat," Boulègue commented.

"In that sort of… geopolitical battle between the United States and China, they definitely do not want to overreach."

During Xi's visit, EU officials acknowledged Beijing's past efforts to moderate Russia's nuclear saber-rattling or its refusal to provide lethal aid.

Many observers noted that China is playing a careful balancing game, seeking to woo the EU and drive a wedge between it and the U.S. Given Europe's support for Ukraine, this naturally means treading carefully on war-related issues.

"The Americans would love everyone close ranks against Russia and China. China doesn't want that," Lucas noted.

What can the West do?

Shortly after the outbreak of the full-scale war, Western countries imposed extensive sanctions against Russia, aimed at cutting off its crucial supply lanes.

While experiencing a sudden drop in microelectronics imports in 2022, Russia has rebounded to prewar levels since then, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said.

As China has played an increasingly important role in Russia's sanctions circumvention, Western efforts have recently zeroed in on Chinese companies.

Following repeated warnings issued toward Beijing, the U.S. announced on May 1 a package of sanctions against almost 300 entities and individuals, including Chinese companies accused of aiding Russia's war effort.

The EU's 13th sanctions package also included China-based entities helping Moscow dodge restrictive measures.

In a separate effort to pressure Beijing, the U.S. added 37 Chinese entities to the trade blacklist due to security reasons, including 11 of them accused of being connected to last year's espionage incident, the U.S. Commerce Department said on May 9.

Nevertheless, while China's monthly transactions with Russia dropped in early 2024 compared to their peak of $600 million last December, the country remains the leading supplier of high-priority goods, Carnegie Endowment said.

According to Lucas, sanctions can function as a deterrent and make it more difficult for Chinese companies to trade with Russia, but their "record of changing decisions is quite limited."

"The U.S. and Europe are not making China's life easier, but they still find many ways to bypass sanctions. So, honestly, we are several steps behind being efficient in the full sanctions regime," Boulègue said.

While there is little that Kyiv's allies can do regarding trade with Chinese-made products, there is certainly room for improvement in curtailing the re-exports of Western goods.

Under the so-called Foreign Direct Product Rule, the U.S. authorities can regulate re-exports not only of American-made products but also of foreign-produced items whose production involves U.S. software or technology.

"And then it becomes a question of enforcement," Hilgenstock noted.

While the EU does not have such a rule, its past sanctions included additional restrictions on further re-exports to Russia from third-party companies.

Sanctioning such entities also has its limits, however. A common practice in Russia's evasion schemes is foreign-based shell companies that can be dissolved and re-registered as formally new entities after being targeted by sanctions.

For this method to be effective, "you have to do it comprehensively. So not just one or two of these intermediaries, but rather all of them, you would have to do it consistently across all of the coalition's jurisdictions," Hilgenstock commented.

One positive impact that may not be apparent at first sight is the change in value of the products rather than their volumes.

Hilgenstock said that there is some evidence that "Russia is paying significantly more money simply because the Chinese know that Russia desperately needs" these supplies.

This mirrors the situation in Russia's oil exports. Sanctions forced Moscow to pivot from European markets to India and China while selling their product at a significant discount.

"We're not going to stop every single battlefield item from reaching Russia, but if we can make them significantly more expensive, that would be a very promising avenue," Hilgenstock concluded.