I think I can say that the ruble is in free fall
this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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113 now
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB
109.5 now(11:40 CET) with a clear upwards trajectory.
The trajectory points to it passing 110 soon maybe even 111 by the end of day, if the Russian central bank doesn't do something to intervene.
Looking at the 6 month graph, shows more clearly that it's really bad:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/USD-RUB?window=6M
Going from 85 early August to about 110 now is a decline in value of 30% in 4 months. And from November 11 to today it's from 96 to 110, 14% in just over 2 weeks! It seems the Russian economy is imploding now.
PS:
Just to clarify: The graph going up means you get more Rubles for 1 US dollar. Meaning the value of the Russian Ruble is going down.
Edit:
12:30 CET Passed 110, pretty much as expected, which is why I already used that value in my calculations before it actually happened. 😋
13:00 WTF! from 110 to 111 in just ½ an hour, it's now declined 5% in a single day! And is still dropping!!
13:30 112.4 now! Another half hour another point!! I suspect the Central bank will respond to this soon. But it already seemed like they tried to support the Ruble yesterday, so maybe their reserves are running dry, so they can't?
14:10 114.5 Wow after seeming somewhat stable for almost half an hour, the crazy took it up an extra notch with 2 points in about 10 minutres, the decline for the day is now 8.5% !!
18:00 It seems to have stabilized around 113, The Russian central bank has made a public statement about halting purchase of foreign currency until 2025. I would imagine that would make foreign trade difficult? Early estimates are that the decline of the will cause inflation to increase from 8.5% to 10%.
I love how we can (almost) use percentage and points interchangeably today 😁
113 RN (27%/6 mo)
Edit: Links aren’t working at the moment. Did Google remove the chart [at Russia’s behest]?
You don't have to post the image of the graph I linked to myself.
The 30% I stated is from August to when the rate was 110 today.
Edit: Both links I posted work fine here.
There is a time/place/reason for captures. For example, I just pointed out the link wasn’t working. (But it is again)
Thanks though!
Aaaand it's at 110 !
Even if it jumps back to 108 it would still be crazy bad. But who would invest like really invest not try to prop up the value artificially, in this train wreck? And it looks like the central bank have already played their cards ...
This is insane, 111 now, a drop of more than 5% in a single day!
The Rubel is not freely traded. The Central Bank sets the exchange rates.
EDIT: exchange rate not interest rates. Shit.
That's how it is for all currencies.
Exchange rate. I am an idiot:
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/pr/?file=638538773185105939ENG_PP.htm
OK that makes more sense, but although Russia has done a lot to restrict trade with their currency, and they do a lot to stabilize it, it's still a traded currency.
That "Black Friday sale – Up to 70 % off" ad in the screenshot is well placed...
Eli5: What are the consequences for the Russian government if this trend continues and they can't stop it?
Didn't you hear? Prominent Lemmy propagandists have assured us numerous times the sanctions aren't working and the Russian economy is actually booming!
If it hits 120 it will be at the same level as when the Soviet Union caputted... You draw the conclusion ☺️
They’re at 111.78!
113 even 😊 !!
Well deserved for that Zrada from 2014
Had to look up Zrada, and it seems we are in agreement here!
The ultra thin layer of relevant government will always be fine, they are encrusted in luxury and will never face any troubles, like the NK rulers and other dictators.
The people in ruzzia are fucked, their economy will be toast, and this will make this shitty war more and more unbearable.
Looks like it. Russia's economy is collpasing right now. I just hope the Saudis loose their shit and start lowering the oil price. They are actually pissed at the Russians for not actually lowering production as agreed in OPEC+. That would kill the Russian economy.
Don't count your chickens before they hatch, or how does that idiom go?
Let's see if the current prediction around stagflation in the russian economy plays out (I very much hope it comes true).
Currently stagflation is not a prediction, it's already clearly happening.
And it's the bad kind of stagflation, where production isn't even stagnant but declining.
We know for sure this is already happening in a big way in the food sector for major household items like eggs, butter, sugar and potatoes. With price hikes up to 70%, while the inflation is claimed to be "only" about 8%, which is twice the target of the Russian central bank. But in reality it's probably way more.
putler really fucks over everyone but the very elite with his destructive vanity projects
Even the Elite is being fucked over, their values like real estate is being confiscated all over the world, they can't sail their luxury yachts internationally, and the value of the companies they own are being bled by Putin to support the war.
Obviously the elite is still filthy rich, but a lot of the privileges they used to enjoy have been taken away.
But the poor are really suffering (as always), if you are on a state pension, you very likely don't have enough to eat properly already.
I guess what I really meant is more downstream, global impacts from stagflation.
I'm not sure what you mean "downstream", and I doubt there will be any global impact from Russian stagflation. Globally Russia is not a very important economy, and they're already heavily sanctioned.
Ironically, if Putin had chosen cooperation with the west in 1991 instead of confrontation, Russia would have been the leading economy in Europe now, and Russia could have been as important to Europe as Germany!
But the Moron Putin chose to burn it all the fuck down. Because apparently being #1 in Europe wasn't good enough!?!?
Downstream, global in the cotext of the russian economy. Things like bank failures, significant drawdowns from reserved. Etc.
OK if the banks fail too, it will be a VERY quick and hard crash. I must admit I have no idea how the banks are doing.
That was my initial feeling when it broke through the 100 barrier (against Putins orders) and went all the way to 103.
Last week lol.
Ruble about to experience weightlessness
That's an amazing metaphor, it's a very clever way to say the Russian Central bank is losing their grip, and somehow it's kind of hilarious, imagining the Ruble as a free floating balloon out of control. 😋 👍