this post was submitted on 17 Jul 2024
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Personally, I don't like to trust commentary on FiveThirtyEight's tracker from anyone other than FiveThirtyEight. They do a fantastic job of tempering expectations and not putting too much stock in momentary changes in the tracker. The current numbers are basically the same as they were on May 11:
It hasn't changed much, even after all the wild shiz that has happened since May 11. Furthermore, the polls usually work on a delay, so they haven't yet factored in the assassination attempt, or the RNC. And often, the tracker stays at a dead-even heat largely because their statistical model factors in uncertainty from the 4 months between now and Election Day.
All of that is to say: the race is still essentially dead-even. Like Chris said in the OP, the most important thing to do is vote and encourage others to vote, no matter what the polls say.
It's a new model this year, as Nate Silver took his with him when he left 538. The new one seems to put a lot of emphasis on "the fundamentals" this far out, that is, it "thinks" that the general environment and economy and such is pretty good for the incumbent and that the polls might move in that direction by the time election day comes along. And since it's fitted to historical data, it's also implicitly assuming that this election will be similar to past elections (like, say, including a competent campaign by a candidate who can get out there and effectively communicate accomplishments and a plan for their term).
I personally think those assumptions are pretty clearly wrong this year and so I'm more inclined to base my perception of the race on pure polling averages, which are looking quite bad for Biden.