this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2024
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This is very simplified and of course, biased as I am a regular citizen with some political ideology but I’ll try and be as neutral as I can.
Well, we just voted for a new parliament. Ever since 1957 (when the 5th republic pretty much started), there have been mostly obvious winners for these elections, implying that culturally our political parties have not been the best at negotiating.
The president is responsible for naming a prime minister from the majority but the definition of a majority can be odd because of how impeachment works. There have been quite a few situations in which the president and his prime minister were from different parties, rendering the president’s powers basically symbolic for day-to-day stuff, the prime minister was then handling pretty much everything.
But during these times, the prime ministers had large majorities and there was little to no chance of the prime minister being fired by parliament.
The censorship motion (which I might call « firing » or « impeaching » because I have no clue how to properly translate this) basically works as such: someone calls for it, and it requires 289/577 representatives to vote yay. There may be negotiations in order for non-allied yet not-too-hostile groups to not vote, which is what is happening right now.
But now, even though the left won, they have too few allies to prevent being censored by parliament. There are basically three groups with approximately equal numbers of representatives: left, center-right and far right. So if a left prime minister were to be appointed, the two other groups would impeach them, and so on for other groups.
But here comes the special role of « king maker » of the far right: they laid their conditions for not impeaching a right-leaning government, and the left does not have enough representatives to impeach this newly appointed person.
And since it’s still the president’s responsibility to appoint a prime minister, Macron negotiated with the far right to try and appoint Barnier.
So what’s left to figure is: what the far right requires, how long this government will stand and whether Macron will call for new elections next year. There may be no elections for the next 10 months, even if Macron resigns, so we’re stuck with this odd situation which has never happened with the current constitution of France.
It’s a bit hard summarizing everything but I hope I got the point across.
Motion or vote of no-confidence.
I don't think the far-right is kingmaker here, they wouldn't work with the left and neither would the left want to work with them. So both the left and right only have Macron's coalition as an option to get a majority. That makes him with his "center"-coalition the kingmaker, they get to decide if they want to work with the left or right and it looks like he chose the right.
Macron has said he doesn't talk to RN or LFI. If he wanted to work with the left he would accept the candidate from the NFP who already more or less agreed to keep the LFI out of the government, but he chose a Republican who's presumably going to talk to the RN for him to get their support.
He talks to them alright: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/09/05/far-right-given-kingmaker-role-in-macron-s-prime-minister-search_6724909_5.html
Thank you for both vocabulary and the in-depth explanation of Macron’s central position with which I agree. To add to your explanation, the presidence of our parliament remained in macron’s hands which makes my previous point quite dishonest, or at least overstates the importance of the far right group.
That was an extremely helpful and informative summary thank you! I must say I’m a bit disappointed that there hasn’t been more cooperation between the more ‘traditional’ left and right leaning parties to cut out the far right party.
What’s the general feeling about the political situation in France rn?
Please see @zaphod@sopuli.xyz 's answer for another point of view on the situation.
The general feeling is hard to grasp. Summer is always a kind of political truce, plus we hosted the olympic games. I guess it will be very different in a few days/weeks when everyone comes back from vacation.
That was very helpful!